Rutte threatens with new "ways of convincing" Spain to spend more on defense

Ankara (Turkey)NATO has no court or coercive power that can force a member state to reach 5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in military spending. However, the rest of the allies, especially the United States, can exert all sorts of diplomatic pressures, economic and military to make countries like Spain believe, which refuses to meet Donald Trump's demands and wants to stay at 2.1%. And this is what the Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance himself, Mark Rutte, has hinted the White House will do against Pedro Sánchez's government.

The Dutch leader paves the way for Trump even before he arrives at the NATO summit in Ankara (Turkey) this Tuesday and Wednesday. In the press conference prior to the leaders' meeting, Rutte congratulated himself that the vast majority of allies are complying with the increase in spending and military capabilities demanded by Washington, but he lamented – in an implicit reference to Spain – that there are still "one or two who are still to be convinced" and that there are new "ways" for them to eventually yield.

The NATO Secretary General avoided specifying what "ways" are on the table and limited himself to replying that it is a matter within the competence of the allies. Thus, Rutte has picked up the gauntlet from the Trump administration and the warnings it has been issuing for days before the Ankara summit. The clearest in this regard was the United States Ambassador to NATO in Brussels, Matthew Whitaker, who assured on Wednesday that the Pentagon "would benefit" allies who spend more on defense and, conversely, would punish those who allocate less of their GDP to it.

In this way, the White House plans to prioritize contracts and tenders for military equipment, and give more access to American leaders, to governments that comply with the military spending agreement reached at last year's NATO summit in The Hague. For the moment, however, neither Rutte nor Whitaker have wanted to detail what punishments are on the table to apply against allies like Spain. An announcement that Trump himself may make public this Wednesday in Ankara, where he is expected to reproach European leaders face-to-face, according to diplomatic sources from the Atlantic Alliance.

Despite warnings from Trump and Rutte, Moncloa maintains that no more than 2.1% of GDP will be allocated to defense and that Spain will be the only ally to achieve NATO military capability objectives without reaching 5%. In fact, sources from the Spanish government downplay the statements of the Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance and consider that, in large part, the criticism they receive is due to it being a progressive executive.

The same sources from the Spanish government celebrate that there are more allies who do not facilitate compliance with NATO's military spending increase path or who, directly, refuse to assume it. In fact, Moncloa claims that Sánchez is no longer alone in the Atlantic Alliance in this regard and points out that, as has happened with the war in Gaza or the criticisms against the US attack on Iran, more and more countries are joining the opposition to the great rearmament demanded by Trump.

Furthermore, Moncloa also downplays the effects of any potential sanctions that the President of the United States may announce at the summit against allies he considers non-compliant, such as Spain. Thus, sources from the Spanish government assure that a potential withdrawal of US troops or from the military bases of Rota and Morón de la Frontera would not affect security in the territory of the Spanish state in any case, as it would continue to be under NATO's protection umbrella.

Erdogan's "hospitality"

As is customary, Rutte began the initial press conference of the annual NATO summit by thanking the host country of the meeting. In this case, Turkey. However, what is not customary – and the Dutch leader has overlooked – is that in the preceding days the government organizing the meeting of allied leaders has preemptively repressed journalists, activists, and the opposition in general. The Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance has limited himself to recalling that a democracy not only implies that elections are called from time to time, but that "also, among other things, journalists can be in the press room and ask whatever questions they wish".

At the press conference, various Turkish media journalists asked questions, but some could not even access it because Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government had taken charge of arresting information professionals critical of the regime. It has also exercised extraordinary control over the country's public media, and the Supreme Council of Radio and Television of Turkey itself has issued a statement assuring that "all broadcasts are supervised, inspected, and evaluated with the utmost diligence" for the NATO summit.

In Ankara itself, Turkish police arrested at least a hundred people demonstrating against the NATO summit. Furthermore, the security for the meeting is extreme. Normally, at these summits, the area where leaders meet is cordoned off, helicopters fly overhead, and, among other measures, snipers can be seen on rooftops. In this case, however, the Turkish government has cut off traffic in a large part of the city, prohibited all kinds of parties and celebrations, suspended classes and exams, and given a day off to all civil servants. Ankara seems almost a ghost town in many parts, with only police and military vehicles, shuttle buses for the meeting, and official cars circulating.