Europe on alert for growing signs of hybrid warfare
Drone incursions have multiplied and European capitals point to Moscow
BarcelonaPoland, Estonia, Latvia, Sweden, Romania, Lithuania, and now also Germany. Incursions and drone threats into NATO territory have become more frequent in recent months and have intensified. After Monday Poland detected a Russian spy plane in the Baltic, this Tuesday NATO aircraft have been mobilized to intercept two stray drones – possibly from Ukraine – that have set off anti-aircraft alarms in Latvia and Estonia.
They are the latest incidents in a long list of similar episodes, increasingly common, which serve as a reminder that Europe is not on the sidelines of the war in Ukraine. On several occasions, Atlantic alliance resources have had to be mobilized to intercept Russian fighter jets and intelligence aircraft (such as the Il-20 or Tu-22M3) over the Baltic Sea, flying without transponders to avoid detection. In the east of the continent, several violations of airspace in Poland and Romania by Russian drones have been recorded, which have had to be shot down by NATO fighter jets. At the end of May, a Russian unmanned aircraft deviated from its target in Ukraine and injured two people in the Romanian city of Galati, the first victims on Community territory.
Just a few months later, in early August, a drone loaded with explosives hit a Ukrainian plane at Leipzig airport without detonating. "We are the daily target of hybrid warfare," said German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt after the incident. "Espionage, sabotage, cyberattacks or covert operations by foreign powers aimed at destabilizing Germany or inflicting direct damage are a constant reality.
As on other occasions, the Kremlin shrugged off responsibility, claiming there was no evidence of its authorship and calling the alleged attack a "fabricated provocation." In fact, the Russian embassy in Berlin even expressed in a statement "its concern about a new wave of anti-Russian hysteria in Germany" due to accusations from some deputies.
The drone attack attempt on Leipzig airport, one of the most direct sabotage attempts recorded so far at a key NATO logistics center and military support for Ukraine, has been the last straw and has put European governments on alert. "[The incident in Leipzig] is a signal that we must consider the possibility of more direct and violent actions on our territory," assured Celine Berthon, director of the French counter-intelligence agency DGSI, last week. Berthon warned at a business forum of a "meteoric" increase in hybrid threats – such as cyber penetrations and violent acts perpetrated by local intermediaries – to defense and technology industries, and in strategic sectors such as energy and communications.
A coordinated European response
As interceptions of devices proliferate, European leaders are increasingly less hesitant to point to Vladimir Putin's regime as responsible. This Tuesday, for the first time, the German government is expected to directly blame Russian intelligence services for the Leipzig airport incident. Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated last week that his government will make "the perpetrators of hybrid attacks pay a price." According to information from the German newspaper Bild, diplomatic sanctions are on the table, such as summoning the Russian ambassador to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and expelling Russian embassy employees from Germany and declaring them persona non grata.
However, at the same time, the chancellor has insisted that he is committed to a coordinated response with European and NATO partners, which should arrive "in the coming days." According to diplomatic sources cited by Politico, the plan currently being reviewed – and which will be discussed this Tuesday and Wednesday in the Irish city of Wicklow at the informal meeting of EU Foreign Ministers – envisages massive sanctions against approximately 1,600 Russian actors, including 800 individuals and 800 companies. It is also expected that the debate on the use of frozen Russian assets will be reopened, although Belgium, the state where the seized funds are deposited, will need to be convinced first.
