Bolsonaro's trial for attempted coup begins under pressure from Trump

São PauloThe moment of truth has arrived for former President Jair Bolsonaro and his most loyal core of collaborators throughout his term between 2019 and 2022. This Tuesday, the second chamber of the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF), made up of five judges, begins an unprecedented trial. It is the most significant since the country's redemocratization, due to the public officials involved and because six of those tried are or have been military personnel (there are three generals and one admiral). It even surpasses that of Lula da Silva, imprisoned for corruption, which prevented him from participating in the 2018 elections, which precisely brought the far right to power, a process from which he was acquitted and the case closed.

Bolsonaro and seven other defendants, who formed the hard core of the executive branch, are charged with five crimes, including of an attempted coup d'état at the end of 2022 to prevent Lula da Silva, who had won the presidential elections, from taking office. Combined, the maximum prison sentences can reach up to 43 years.

The so-called "crucial core" of the coup plot includes, in addition to the former president, Alexandre Ramagem, former director of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency and federal deputy; Almir Garnier, former commander of the Navy; Anderson Torres, former Minister of Justice; Augusto Heleno, former Minister of the Institutional Security Cabinet; Mauro Cid, former presidential aide, who is the only whistleblower in the case; Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, former Minister of Defense; and Walter Braga Netto, former Minister of Defense and Minister of the Civil House.

Of all of them, only General Braga Netto, who was Bolsonaro's vice-presidential candidate for re-election in 2022, is in pretrial detention in Rio de Janeiro for attempting to interfere in the investigations. Bolsonaro is under house arrest in Brasilia, for failure to comply with the restrictions that the Supreme Court applied to him. His residence is monitored 24 hours after in August The Federal Police found on his cell phone an old request from 2024 for political asylum to Javier Milei, President of Argentina..

Initially, only two of the defendants will attend part of the trial in person, which will have eight sessions. The rest will attend online, including Bolsonaro. The five judges' vote is scheduled for Tuesday the 9th, and the verdict will be announced on Friday the 12th.

Donald Trump's interference

The trial, in which the entire Brazilian political class assumes Bolsonaro will receive a very severe sentence, will take place in a very tense atmosphere due to the interference of Donald Trump, who has called for the proceedings to be halted. The US president justified the implementation of a tariff 50% on Brazilian imports, in force since August 6, due to the "witch hunt" suffered by its ally in the tropics.

In parallel with the tariffs, the White House sanctioned Judge Alejandro de Moraes, who is the rapporteur and has led all the legal proceedings against Bolsonaro, applying the Magnitsky Act, known as the "financial death penalty," a mechanism for foreigners created to punish dictators who are enemies of the United States and those accused of misrepresentation. In the coming weeks, the same mechanism is expected to be applied to other members of the Brazilian Supreme Court. In fact, Lula's government is already working with the hypothesis that new US trade sanctions could follow Bolsonaro's conviction. In a worst-case scenario, given Trump's unpredictability, it is not ruled out that he could even decree some type of embargo or sever diplomatic relations.

In Washington, the trial will be followed by an internal team from the State Department, members of the White House, and intelligence services. The son of the former president on trial, Federal Representative Eduardo Bolsonaro, who has moved to the United States and led the contacts with the Republican administration to implement tariffs against his own country, will be present.

Under blackmailing pressure from the United States and the self-serving gaze of organizations such as the Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union, Bolsonaro's trial has taken on a dimension that transcends its borders. It represents a democratic stress test and the international credibility of local institutions. In a very short period, the South American giant has gone from being the global epicenter of the far right, when Trump lost the election and Bolsonaro was still in power, to now being a laboratory for democratic regeneration and the rule of law.