Global warming enters unknown territory with the super-El Niño

BarcelonaThe planet continues to warm, and indicators of climate change show an increasingly worrying situation. The global average temperature between January and September 2026 stood at 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, according to the update of the State of the Global Climate report published this Monday by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), coinciding with the start of COP31 in Turkey. A figure that could still increase further by the end of the year, with the possibility of exceeding the fateful 1.5°C of warming. The organization also warns that the exceptionally intense El Niño episode currently underway may aggravate the warming and extreme weather events well into 2027.

The last four years, from 2023 to 2026, are the warmest since records began, and the last twelve years individually head the ranking of the twelve warmest years. Thus, 2026 is shaping up to be one of the four years with the highest temperatures ever observed. The figure of 1.47°C is still provisional and corresponds to the first nine months of the year, but it is already comparable to the annual records of 2023 and 2025.

One of the most alarming indicators in the report is Earth's energy imbalance, which reached its highest value in 2025 since these observations began in 1960. This imbalance means that the planet retains more energy than it releases into space, mainly due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases. Preliminary data for 2026 point to a new record high.

90% of this excess heat is absorbed by the oceans, whose heat content reached a record in 2025 and could set another one in 2026, for the tenth consecutive year. Marine warming affects ecosystems, intensifies storms, and contributes to sea-level rise, which has also reached its historical maximum.

The super-El Niño, a risk multiplier

Added to this scenario is an El Niño episode that has been intensifying since August and which the WMO predicts will reach exceptional intensity in December, potentially unprecedented, as experts have been warning for months. The phenomenon, categorized as a super-El Niño, could last until early 2027 and have repercussions throughout much of the year, and will in all likelihood become the strongest ever recorded.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that alters temperature and precipitation patterns on a global scale. In this case, however, it is acting on a planet that is already accumulating extraordinary amounts of heat. "El Niño does not add heat to the planet, but rather releases the heat accumulated in the oceans, which have reached the highest temperatures since measurements began; quite simply, there is more heat to release," explains WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo in the report.

Usually, this phenomenon can increase the average annual global temperature by between 0.1 and 0.2 °C, and its most significant effect usually occurs the year after its development. For this reason, the organization warns that 2027 could once again record exceptional temperatures. The risk of heatwaves, droughts, floods, and heavy rainfall will also increase, although the effects vary by region.

Human and economic impact

The report also collects the consequences of the extreme episodes recorded during 2026. In Europe, heatwaves, drought, and forest fires have caused more than 30,000 additional deaths, according to preliminary estimates. In India, a heatwave in April exposed 146.5 million people to extreme temperatures. In Nepal, the collapse of a glacier in the Himalayas and the subsequent flash floods caused more than 1,300 deaths.

Ice loss also continues to accelerate. Glaciers lost more than 400 gigatons of mass during 2025, an amount equivalent to filling five Olympic swimming pools every second throughout the year. Meanwhile, freshwater reserves stored on land have been decreasing globally since 2014.

Faced with this scenario, the WMO insists on the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen adaptation capacity. One of the advances is the increase in countries that have early warning systems for multiple risks: they have gone from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025.

The organization's message is clear: the planet is already accumulating an unprecedented amount of heat and this El Niño episode may intensify its consequences. The climate crisis is not a future threat, but a reality that is already conditioning the health, natural resources, and lives of millions of people.