A figurehead and ally of Putin and Trump in Europe, and a key figure of the anti-European and anti-immigration continental far-right, Viktor Orbán is much more than a nuisance to the European Union: he is the internal enemy who has called into question the EU's foundational values and short-circuited its system of unanimous governance. His eventual defeat at the polls this Sunday would therefore mean a respite and an injection of pro-European confidence, both to make Russia's support for Ukraine clear, to show the US president the limits of his influence on the Old Continent, and, thirdly, to deflate the far-right's rise.
But, despite the favorable polls for the opposition candidate Péter Magyar and his party, Tisza, the truth is that it is hard to believe Orbán can lose: he has held increasingly personalized power for sixteen years, has extended his clientelism to all areas – including, of course, the media – and exercises a tight grip on the country. Therefore, we will have to wait until Sunday night to see if the miracle has occurred or if the impoverished rural population – as in Catalonia or Spain, the electoral system is not proportional and gives more weight to small towns – and the 600,000 exiles eligible to vote – out of a register of 8 million – will save the prime minister and continue to vote for his party, Fidesz, which has so far achieved supermajorities.
In any case, optimism in Brussels is cautious. Among other things, because even in the event of a change, Magyar is not exactly a game-changer either. It is not clear that the opposition leader, if he comes to power, will distance himself more from Moscow than Orbán, nor that he will be willing to support Kyiv or genuinely combat the euroscepticism so deeply rooted among the country's citizens. We will have to see where he positions himself. It is unlikely he can be tougher than Orbán, but he cannot be expected to be in sync with Brussels either. Right now, Budapest is no longer alone in its dissent and has the company of countries like Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
The fact is that the war in Ukraine has had a very notable prominence during the campaign, with Orbán calling Zelenski "dangerous" and even having him appear on posters more than himself. There's nothing like choosing a good enemy. Why Zelenski? Because in Orbán's Hungary, because he has cultivated it this way, there is a lot of fear: fear of war, fear of Putin –it's better to have Russians as friends–, fear of losing subsidies, fear of immigration... Fear rules. The majority of citizens interviewed by el ARA's special correspondent, Núria Vila, are also afraid to give their names. The Hungarian rule of law has been greatly weakened. Orbán's populist authoritarianism, based on a basic combination of conservative Christianity and football, has changed society: depending on the electoral result, we will see how far this transformation has gone and how reversible it is.
Hungary's elections are, therefore, very relevant. This Sunday, the country is playing for the possibility of ending the Orbán era and starting a change of course, however timid, and Europe is playing for the possibility of putting a brake on the advance of the far-right, reinforcing Ukraine's defense and, incidentally, sending a message to both Putin and Trump.
