Try to understand where and why Aliança Catalana grows

All recent surveys published in Catalonia, including the one from the ARA newspaper from the beginning of the month, agree in pointing to the growth of Aliança Catalana, an independence party with a xenophobic stance, mainly at the expense of Junts. This phenomenon represents a novelty in the history of Catalanism, which has always been predominantly inclusive and non-essentialist, and has a special capacity to penetrate what we have called the transversal axis of the far-right, an imaginary line that would connect Tortosa with Figueres through the interior of the country. That is why we wanted to visit these cities, along with Balaguer, Manresa, Vic, and Ripoll, to try to understand the factors that explain the growth of this vote.

Analyzing the results from 2023 and 2024, political scientist Jordi Muñoz reaches a surprising conclusion. There is no direct correlation between the percentage of foreign population and votes for AC, even though Sílvia Orriols' discourse is basically anti-immigration. Instead, there are other factors that carry much more weight. For example, the decline in support for the pro-independence parties that led the "Procés", namely Junts, ERC, and the CUP. There is, therefore, a vote that clearly stems from the frustration caused by the outcome of the "Procés" and the mismanagement of expectations by the politicians who were then at the forefront.

There is another correlation that does indeed grab attention, and it is the one that relates Carlist votes in the period 1890-1924 with current support for Aliança Catalana. Carlism was also a basically antimodern movement that aspired to stop the clock at a time of great changes, a bit like Silvia Orriols' party does now when it appeals to a more or less mythical past where everything was as it should be. As Muñoz points out, it is as if there were a historical subterranean thread that, after being framed within conservative nationalism during the 20th and 21st centuries, whether with La Lliga, CiU or Junts, has now re-emerged.

In any case, this transversal axis does have some common characteristics. It generally refers to medium-sized cities with degraded historic centers and economically dependent on sectors that require low-skilled foreign labor. The arrival of contingents of foreign population in a short time has changed the landscape of many neighborhoods and has originated episodes of tension, although in no case are we talking about serious situations. Politics, however, is mainly based on perceptions, and the far-right is a specialist in spreading and exploiting the feeling of insecurity.

All of this represents an immense challenge for the current municipal teams with only one year to go until the elections. The forecast is that where Aliança Catalana obtained 10% three years ago, it will now double its results. And in the rest of the territory, it will climb to percentages close to 15%, also depending on the candidates it presents. The Generalitat should focus on this transversal Catalan axis and prevent unease from growing. Before it's too late.