First, the data: 8,233,788. These are the inhabitants of Catalonia as of this Thursday. Up to 72,150 more people than a year ago and 32,000 more than six months ago. We continue to grow due to the arrival of people from abroad. If it were for the birth rate of the natives, we would lose population. Right now there are 2.15 million citizens born outside the State, 26.2% of the total. That is, one in four inhabitants.
21st century Catalonia is a much denser and more plural society than 20th century Catalonia. Globalization has reached us in full. But it is not alien to us: Catalonia has been a land of passage and welcome for centuries. This does not mean that it has been a process of flowers and violets. But amidst great difficulties and tensions, evident collective progress has been made. The challenge is for growth to remain compatible with progress, and with respect for its own culture, starting with the language. Right now, all this is at stake.
Today, strong demographic pressure is maintained. Many want to come live in Catalonia. We continue to be a society with great capacity for attraction. And not only people who come to settle in search of opportunities, attracted by economic dynamism (the unemployment rate is at 7.9%, lower than in 2008, before the crisis). The floating population is also increasing, and a lot: despite attempts to curb it, tourism – beach, sports, nature, conferences, study, scientific, cultural... – is also going up: the arrival of foreign visitors rose by 3.5% in the first half of the year, to 9.5 million, so everything indicates that in 2026 a new record will be set.
Are we dying of success? Well, partly yes. Tensions in housing, healthcare, education, and transport are on the daily agenda. So are identity frictions. Can the arrival of people be stopped? Well, it's not easy at all. Europe is looking for formulas, with very relative results, to close doors to immigration, while at the same time trying to promote birth rates, since, in reality, we do lack population to sustain the economic and social model: there are many sectors in which there is a labor shortage, especially in care.
The far-right is pushing for border closures, and is conditioning a debate based more on prejudice than on facts. The debate, undoubtedly, must take place. However, it must be based on data and with respect, without forgetting basic civic values: letting infants, women, and men die at sea is not an option. It is an indignity. Welcoming unaccompanied minors is a humanitarian duty. Blaming the different and those who live in precariousness or destitution for all ills is too easy.
That said, can we uncritically move towards a Catalonia of 10 million inhabitants? No. We can get there if we prepare ourselves now. And we must prepare for it because it will be very difficult to avoid population growth. It's better to get used to the idea. It is urgent to rethink basic services and the economic model to sustain them, with wealth creation less dependent on tourism (12% of GDP) and more focused on value-added industry. It's time to build a lot of housing, reform the educational system, strengthen healthcare, truly improve mobility (trains, roads), and commit to serious integration policies (with rights and duties).
