The start of the war in Iran affected the Catalan economy little

BarcelonaThe first weeks of the war in Iran had a modest effect on the growth of the Catalan economy, which in the first quarter of this year continued to increase at a rate clearly higher than the average of the European Union countries, according to the first data on gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) for Catalonia for the first three months of 2025 released this Friday by Idescat, the statistical agency of the Generalitat.

Thus, the Catalan economy grew by 0.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. This represents a slowdown in the growth rate, as the quarterly growth rate between last October and December was 0.9%. However, if compared to a year ago, the increase in activity in the first quarter was a notable 2.9%, three tenths more than the annual variation registered in the previous quarter.

Thus, Catalonia maintains the line of the last two years, during which – like the entire Spanish economy – it has been able to maintain growth levels much higher than the average of both the EU and the eurozone countries, particularly the major economies of the continent, such as Germany, France, or Italy. In this regard, the 27 member states of the community bloc grew by 1% annually; that is, Catalonia almost tripled the European average (and was two tenths above the Spanish one). Likewise, while the quarterly growth rate in Catalonia was 0.6% – the same as the State's overall – in the EU it was limited to a modest 0.1%.

Thus, the Catalan economy resisted the initial impact of the war in Iran, which began on February 28 when the United States and Israel attacked the Asian country. In this first month of war, which is included in the first quarter of the year, there were already strong increases in the price of oil as a result of the bombings of oil facilities in several countries of the Persian Gulf and, above all, due to the closure of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains de facto blocked today

de facto.

Looking ahead to the coming months, most economic entities and the Generalitat emphasize that the high uncertainty surrounding the war's outcome makes predictions difficult. Despite this, last Monday the Government's Department of Economy updated its forecasts and expects Catalan GDP to increase by 2.3% this year. Along similar lines, the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce set the figure at 2.2%, although it clarified that it also foresees more pessimistic scenarios that would further cut the figure and place inflation at much higher levels than current ones.

Services and construction are driving growth

By sectors, construction was the one that grew the most, with 5.4% more activity than the first quarter of 2025. Services, which represent more than two-thirds of the Catalan economy, grew by 3.7% annually, while the primary sector grew by 1.2%. Finally, industry, despite resisting in positive figures, was the productive sector that increased the least, with 0.6%, a result of the poor international economic situation due to the war in the Persian Gulf.

These data show, therefore, that services and construction were the two engines of growth during the first three months of the year. In the case of services, "the branches that have contributed most to this growth are hotels and restaurants, IT programming and consultancy activities, and retail trade," the Idescat states in a press release. The statistical body will publish the definitive and more detailed GDP data for the first quarter on June 15.