The Euribor rises again in August and approaches 3%: How does it affect mortgages?
Loans with variable interest to buy housing will become more expensive by an average of 80 euros per month and 936 euros per year
BarcelonaThe twelve-month daily Euribor, the reference for variable-rate mortgages, closed August at an average of 2.952%, close to the 3% level it reached on some days of the month that is ending and which had not been seen since September 2024. On the last session of August, the one-year daily Euribor reached 3.003%. As a consequence of this trend, those whose mortgage loan review is this month will see their monthly installment increase by an average of 80.32 euros, up to 936.76, and about 963 euros annually.
The August rise is the fifth that has occurred this year, after those in March, April, May, and July. For months, however, new mortgages being signed are mostly fixed-rate. But, in any case, the upward trend in interest rates also increases the cost of new loans. According to data from the comparison site Kelisto, the average spread applied to variable-rate mortgages has gone from 0.61 in June to 0.64 in July and 0.68 in August. The rate on fixed-rate mortgages during the same period has gone from 2.763% to 2.89% and to 3.03% in August, while for mixed-rate mortgages (which have a fixed-rate period and a variable one) the rate in the fixed period has gone from 2.43% to 2.65% and to 2.72%, and the average spread in the variable period, from 0.74 to 0.81 and 0.82 in August.
The trend of this indicator, which refers to the price at which banks lend money to each other, suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) could raise interest rates again at the meeting on September 10. This increase is practically taken for granted, considering that inflation in the euro area is already above the optimal 2% (2.9% in July), explains Miquel Riera, an analyst at the comparison site Helpmycash.
Dependence on the conflict in Iran
From this company they calculate that the daily one-year Euribor could end the year "around 2.80%". In any case, if the conflict between the United States and Iran were to worsen, this indicator could reach 3% in December and even stand at around 3.10%.
From Kelisto they emphasize that "the most worrying thing is that this movement of the Euribor is accompanied by new signs that the inflationary pressures caused by the conflict in the Middle East are more persistent than expected". One proof is the advanced consumer price index (CPI), which in August in Spain was 4.3% due to the rise in fuel prices.
In any case, until June, despite the rise in the Euribor, in Catalonia 12.5% more mortgages on housing were signed than in the same period last year, although home sales increased by a meager 1%, according to the INE. The forecast for the Euribor from different organizations and entities ranges between 2.65% and 2.89% towards the end of the year, according to Kelisto.
