Prices rebounded in February, the last month before the impact of the war in Iran.

BarcelonaThe cost of living for Catalan families rose slightly in February, despite remaining within the limits set by the European Central Bank (ECB). Last month was the last before the outbreak of the war in Iran, which is expected to have an upward impact on prices due to the resulting increase in the cost of oil and natural gas. Specifically, prices in Catalonia rose by 0.5% compared to January, a figure that stands out in contrast to the previous month, when the cost of living decreased compared to December. However, compared to a year ago, the growth was 2%, the same annual rate as in January, according to data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI, the indicator that measures the evolution of prices of consumer goods and services) published this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). Across Spain, the INE has confirmed the data that I had already shared two weeks agoThus, in Spain, prices rose on average in February by 2.3% compared to the same month last year and by 0.4% compared to January. The rise in inflation is mainly due to the increase in fuel costs, which is expected to be even more pronounced in the coming months, with a monthly increase of 1.7%. Tourism and hospitality also became more expensive in February, with an average increase of 1.2%.

Food prices also rose, with eggs seeing the largest increase in the shopping basket, rising 20.2% year-on-year in Catalonia, although the price fell slightly by 0.1% compared to January. Beef and veal continued to rise, increasing by 0.5% compared to the previous month; vegetables rose by 1%; sugar by 0.9%; and olive oil by 1.1%. However, the normalization of the cost of olive oil compared to the increases of previous years meant that its price was 19.2% below the level projected for February 2025. In Catalonia, the price of olive oil fell by 1.3% compared to January. Similarly, as is typical in the months following the Christmas season, clothing and footwear also saw price decreases of 1.4% and 0.6%, respectively. Measures prepared

The data places inflation in Catalonia right at the 2% threshold that the ECB has set as its medium-term target for the eurozone as a whole. According to economic theory, annual price growth close to, but slightly below, this rate is the most positive for the economy, since the increase is small and allows companies to gradually update their employees' salaries without having to excessively cut profits. It also avoids the risks of deflation—that is, a fall in prices—which can cause an economic slowdown. Despite being within the target range, economic agents have urged the Spanish government to anticipate events and prepare measures for the coming months, when the rise in oil prices caused by the war in the Middle East is expected to trigger a global price surge. The employers' association Pimec called for "immediate measures to contain the spiraling price increases," while the CEOE, Spain's main business organization, warned that inflation could rise "significantly" if the conflict drags on, as happened in 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing crisis. Regarding the unions, the Workers' Commissions (CCOO) also called in a statement for "the necessary measures to protect working families" in the face of potential increases in the cost of living. The General Union of Workers (UGT) believes it is "more important than ever" to incorporate wage guarantee clauses into collective bargaining agreements: "Only in this way will it be possible to protect workers' purchasing power against a new inflationary surge," the union said in a statement. In this regard, the Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, shared the assessment of the situation made by the social partners and expects prices to rise from March onwards due to the war in the Persian Gulf. That is why, although he did not specify them, he announced measures to mitigate the effects of a possible price increase: "We will protect citizens from a rise in fuel prices," he said in statements to RNE, in addition to announcing controls on fuel prices at gas stations and food prices in large supermarket chains.