Prices remained flat in February, putting inflation at 2.3%.

MadridInflation in Spain remained flat in the second month of the year. In February, prices rose by 2.3% compared to a year ago, as published this Friday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). This is the same year-on-year inflation rate recorded in January and marks the end of three consecutive months of declines. On a month-on-month basis, the preliminary data for the Consumer Price Index (CPI, the indicator that measures the evolution of the cost of living for citizens) for this month of February shows a 0.4% increase in the prices of goods and services that families regularly consume compared to the previous month. The INE will confirm both figures next March.

"Spain remains on the path of price control set by the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of price growth close to 2%. This moderation allows wages to rise above inflation, enabling families to gain purchasing power," the Ministry of Economy emphasizes. The year began with a "positive" inflation trend, as noted in a statement from the College of Economists, despite the volatile evolution of energy prices, especially considering geopolitical tensions. The decrease in the cost of living should allow the State to reduce the gap that had emerged with other European countries.

More expensive fuels

The flat price evolution in February is explained by the drop in electricity prices compared to a year ago. In fact, pending the detailed figures on price trends once the National Statistics Institute (INE) confirms them, this is the positive note of the day. However, this decrease is offset by upward pressure on fuel and lubricant prices for cars, as well as in the restaurant sector, particularly accommodation, food, and non-alcoholic beverages, as highlighted by the INE in a statement. Indeed, the poor performance of the restaurant and food sectors has made it increasingly difficult to achieve price normalization month after month. This is because economic dynamism and the boost from private consumption, as well as tourism, tend to drive prices upward. As for core inflation, which excludes more volatile items such as energy and fresh food, it closed the month with a 2.7% year-on-year increase, once again exceeding the overall CPI rate, as was the case in January. However, this had not occurred since May 2025.

While it is true that the forecasts of the main supervisory bodies for 2026 show a decrease in prices compared to 2025, the forecasts still place the cost of living slightly above the normalization level set by the B2. The Bank of Spain, for example, anticipates that average inflation in 2026 will be 2.1%, resulting from the increase in wage income through collective bargaining, but also from the pressure of core inflation and energy prices. Finally, everything points to what economists call thebase effect. A year ago, in March 2025, prices fell sharply due to the drop in electricity, thanks to hydroelectric power production from heavy rains, and fuel prices.