The Chamber foresees more economic growth this year despite the strong uncertainty in the Middle East

BarcelonaThe Barcelona Chamber of Commerce has revised its growth forecasts for the Catalan economy upwards, but with caution. With the outbreak of the armed conflict in the Middle East at the beginning of this year, most economic institutions cut their growth forecasts in view of the negative impact the conflict would have on the global economy, but in the end the negative effects have been less severe. Despite this, the head of the entity's studies department, Joan Ramon Rovira, insisted that the international context is "very volatile", which is why forecasts can change rapidly.

Specifically, the Chamber has increased the growth of Catalonia's gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) from 2.2% to 2.5% this year. In the presentation of its quarterly economic outlook report, Rovira highlighted that, although growth has "decelerated" in recent years, Catalonia continues to create economic activity at a much higher rate than the European Union average. Likewise, also due to the tensions arising from the war, the entity has increased its inflation forecast for Catalonia by three tenths, to 3.3%.

In the economy as a whole, the report expects all productive factors to continue to increase. Specifically, household consumption will grow by 2.6% this year, while public administration consumption will grow by 2.1%, according to the Chamber's estimates. However, and despite the end of the Next Generation European funds, what stands out most is investment, with an expected annual increase of 4.9%, "good news" because it includes both real estate activity (in a context of housing crisis) and the purchase of productive assets by companies, which will foster productivity increases, according to Rovira.

Likewise, despite the uncertain prospects regarding the international context, the Chamber expects Catalan exports abroad to increase by 1.9%, but imports to grow even more, by 3.9%. Rovira assured that this fact "is not bad news" in itself, as part of the increase in imports is precisely due to the entry into the country of capital goods, such as machinery, which has led to increased investment and has a positive effect on economic activity in the country.

The head of the studies department indicated that "the expectations that companies had for the second quarter, which were very negative due to the conflict, were not real". However, despite the good prospects, the economist pointed out that if the war escalates and the geopolitical situation becomes complicated again, this time the impact could be more negative. "The shock we experienced in the second quarter was much less virulent" than expected, said Rovira, because oil inventories were very large, countries like the United States increased production, and governments implemented policies to mitigate its effects.

Currently, however, "the inventory level has dropped significantly," he stressed. "The situation is much more fragile than three months ago," added the economist. Nevertheless, Rovira insisted that Catalan industry has been showing a high degree of "resilience" since the end of the pandemic.

Growth in service exports

The Chamber has also analyzed the evolution of exports in both Catalonia and Spain over the last ten years to see how the weight of non-tourism services has changed. It is often pointed out that tourism is the main driver of exports beyond industry, but the data published by the chamber entity indicate an increase in the importance of other services.

Specifically, in Spain, tourism has gone from representing 16.4% to 17% of total exports between 2015 and 2025, while non-tourism services have gone from 15.7% to 19.5%. In the Catalan case, estimates made by the Chamber with various official data place the weight of tourism on the export sector at 16.7% in 2019 and 14.7% in 2025, meaning it has lost weight, while the rest of the services have gone from 6.3% to 10.5%. In both Catalonia and Spain as a whole, physical goods exports represent between two-thirds and three-quarters of the total.

Furthermore, the Chamber's report points out that the most advanced services – including engineering, telecommunications, consulting, and finance, among others – have gained 11% productivity between 2015 and 2025, while the sector encompassing hospitality, services, and transport has stagnated.