The irregular entry of immigrants into Spain is being reconfigured

BarcelonaHalf a thousand immigrants have arrived in the Canary Islands since last Saturday on eight different boats. On board one of them, which had to be rescued at dawn about 150 kilometers northeast of Arrecife (Lanzarote), they found at least seven fatalities. This is not an isolated incident; they are victims of the great migration crisis that has been experienced for years at the southern gateway to Europe. The routes these people follow to flee their home countries have undergone a profound reconfiguration in the last decade; some have grown and others have lost weight, but experts warn that one cannot interpret every decline as a definitive solution nor every rebound as a new phenomenon; more and better migration policies are needed for a real solution, they warn.

In the State, the authorities monitoring irregular entry by land and sea confirm that in the last 10 years the Atlantic line to the Canary archipelago has been reactivated, as seen these days, and the corridor between Algeria and the Balearic Islands has been consolidated. The changes respond to a combination of many factors, among which are political conflicts, the impact of climate change, and the increase in the militarization and outsourcing of borders to other countries. However, the massive entry of immigrants into Ceuta coming from Morocco has blurred this year's figures and also the collective imagination, although the Ministry of the Interior's irregular immigration balance sheet does not include the episode from the end of July that has blocked the autonomous city.

Ten years ago, the Canary Islands had relatively low figures for irregular immigration, and the focus was much more concentrated on the western Mediterranean. In 2018, however, Morocco closed the north of the country and, therefore, blocked the routes that had been common until then for people leaving for the Peninsula. This caused a growing trickle of immigrants towards the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands, which are two of the most dangerous sea routes currently used to reach Europe. It was from then on that people using inflatable boats to cross the Atlantic Ocean began to be rescued.

Each route has its own dynamic

Starting from the year 2020, it is this Atlantic route that has gained the most momentum, reaching its peak with 46,843 arrivals in the Canary Islands in 2024. In 2016, there had been 672, explains the executive director of the Spanish Institute for Migration Analysis (IEAM), Beatriz de León Cobo. Since then, arrivals via the Atlantic route have been decreasing and, instead, the route between Algeria and the Balearic Islands has consolidated, which has been gaining prominence. These are no longer exceptional episodes, but rather a sustained corridor that requires capacity for monitoring, reception, and management by public administrations. This increase, for example, has forced the opening of more spaces to attend to the people who arrive there.

In 2025, while arrivals in the Canary Islands decreased by 62%, those in the Balearic Islands increased by 24.5%, reaching 7,321 people. Although in absolute numbers the Atlantic route prevails, the Balearic one has experienced faster growth. However, León Cobo argues that these developments must be studied together, since each corridor has its own dynamic and they are actually connected to one another. "The fact that a route loses weight does not mean that the conditions driving irregular immigration have disappeared. Nor can we assume that every person who stops arriving in the Canary Islands is being diverted to the Balearic Islands," she argues. In this sense, she warns that geopolitical and religious conflicts also influence these routes.

This year there have already been 28,155 arrivals, without counting the massive entry of irregular individuals into Ceuta at the end of July, according to the latest irregular immigration report from the Ministry of the Interior, which collects provisional data up to October 15. Of the total arrivals, a third have been in the Canary Islands and a quarter in the Balearic Islands, in both cases by sea, although the arrival of vessels and land entry through Ceuta and Melilla take all the media attention. León Cobo also points out that the air route continues to be the main gateway for irregular entry into Spain: these are people who arrive legally, as if they were tourists, and who move into an irregular situation once their visa or permitted period of stay expires.

Driven to emigrate

Regarding the factors that drive people to emigrate, the director of the IEAM distinguishes between the primary causes of displacement and the elements that determine the chosen route. Insecurity, lack of opportunities, family expectations, and the loss of livelihoods drive people to leave, while available resources, border agreements, and controls define where the journey takes place. León Cobo recalls that "the route to the Canary Islands does not begin at sea, but in countries like Mali, on land corridors." For example, in 2024, people from Mali represented approximately 27% of arrivals by land and sea to Spain. Added to these situations are the impact of climate change, the extractivism of natural resources, and political instability.

The founder of the organization Caminando Fronteras, Helena Maleno, recalls that in 2023 the route from Senegal was reactivated due to political problems, demonstrations, and the arrests of young people. Despite the subsequent change of government, the lack of fruitful results for the population and the extractivism of resources such as fish have kept the number of departures stable. At the same time, the increase in militarization and cooperation and externalization agreements with Morocco, Mauritania, and Senegal have ended up shifting embarkation points further south, to countries like The Gambia, Guinea-Conakry, and Guinea-Bissau, which implies much longer and more dangerous crossings, explains Maleno.

Overall, it is complicated to make forecasts because a political crisis, a change in border cooperation, or a transformation in economic conditions can alter a route in a few months. León Cobo suggests that in West Africa and the Sahel, the evolution of security, employment opportunities, the growth of the young population, and pressures on livelihoods will remain relevant. Climate change may exacerbate some of these pressures, especially in rural economies, but it does not automatically translate into migration to Europe, as much of the mobility occurs within the same countries or between neighboring countries.