The first heatwave of the year leaves 43 deaths in Catalonia
Deaths attributable to temperature climb to 212 in four days
BarcelonaThe first heatwave of the year has left 43 deaths in Catalonia, according to estimates from the Daily Mortality Monitoring System (MoMo) of the Carlos III Health Institute. This is the only tool that allows us to visualize in almost real-time the deaths that occur daily in the State, which are calculated using the excess mortality indicator; that is, how many deaths that occur [observed] exceed those that were expected [estimated] in a given territory and period. The registry incorporates an estimate of mortality attributable to heat, differentiated from other causes, and indicates that in June the total number of deaths attributable to high temperatures rises to 64.
According to these estimates, between last Sunday and this Wednesday, 43 people have died in Catalonia from causes attributable to heat. Furthermore, deaths have been increasing as the heatwave intensified: on Sunday there were 4, on Monday, 8, and on Tuesday, 14. The peak occurred on Wednesday, with 17. The MoMo indicates that half of the victims (25) were over 85 years old, although the most affected group also includes those over 65 years old (13). This means that the bulk of the deaths (38) are concentrated in the older age groups.
However, the MoMo does not measure actual deaths, but rather makes a statistical projection by cross-referencing temperatures with observed daily mortality and expected mortality for a given period of time. It should be understood as an epidemiological estimate of the impact of heat on mortality, not as a definitive clinical count of death certificates. For example, the Generalitat —which indicates that it has not yet reported any deaths— collects real data on the direct impact of heat on people's health at the end of summer.
This data is preliminary and will need to wait a week to be more stable, as the registry is fed by notifications from the autonomous communities, whose submissions may be delayed. However, based on this registry —which is widely used by epidemiologists and public administrations— it cannot be stated that each of the 43 deaths estimated by the MoMo was caused exclusively by heat. Many of these people could have had cardiovascular, respiratory diseases, or other pathologies aggravated by high temperatures.
A June with 380 deaths in the State
The increase in excess mortality detected in Catalonia is mirrored across the whole of Spain, where the number of deaths has risen to 213. The day with the highest record was also this Wednesday, with almost half of the deaths (95), while on Monday and Tuesday — the hottest days recorded in Spain in June since 1950 — 38 and 66 were counted, respectively. On Sunday there were 13.
By territory, the excess mortality curve is more pronounced in the central and northern regions: 43 in Catalonia, 32 in Castile and León, 30 in the Basque Country, and 28 in Madrid. In Andalusia there have been 18, in Navarre and Aragon, 13 in each; in Castile-La Mancha, 11; in the Valencian Community, 8; in Asturias, 7; in Galicia, 5; and in Cantabria, Extremadura, and La Rioja, 3 in each.
According to Diana Gómez, a scientist at the National Epidemiology Center (CNE) that manages MoMo, the initial data reveal that "there has been a significant increase" in these last four days of June; a month that has provisionally registered 380 deaths due to high temperatures, more than half (55%) during the first heatwave. These figures would thus be added to those of last May, in which 101 deaths linked to extreme heat were registered, the highest figure for that month in the entire historical series.
Gómez explains, in statements to Efe, that heatwaves are arriving earlier and earlier and, although there are no conclusive results yet, a study that the CNE is finalizing suggests that "the earlier they start, the more effect they have on mortality." Heat is particularly harmful to the most vulnerable, as it exacerbates pre-existing pathologies. In fact, 200 of the deaths calculated by MoMo for this period occurred in people over 65, especially in the group over 85, which accounts for 148.
