Half of Catalans believe there is more immigration than there actually is.

BarcelonaMost Catalans overestimate the presence of immigrants in the region, according to the latest survey by the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO). In fact, the assessment, published this Thursday, confirms that the idea is spreading that the percentage of the population born abroad is practically equal to that of the native population. In response to the question, "Out of every 100 residents, how many would you say were born outside of Spain?", 40% of Catalans believe that half or more of their neighbors are foreign-born, and 14% believe that between 30% and 40% are. However, the average perception of those surveyed—that 36% of the population is immigrant—falls far short of the actual figure: those born outside of Spain make up 25% of the total population, according to data from Idescat published on January 1, 2025.

The number of responses supporting the impression that there are more immigrants in Catalonia than actually live there has doubled in just one year: in 2023, only 16% of Catalans believed that 50% or more of the region's residents were immigrants, while in 2024, that figure rose to 2%. "The increase is astonishing: these surveys show little change from year to year because they ask fundamental, not circumstantial, questions, and there is a certain stability," says Jordi Muñoz, professor of political science at the University of Barcelona (UB). Aliou Diallo, a lecturer and researcher on institutional racism at the University of Girona (UdG), also agrees, pointing to two reasons: the prejudice of considering only those with certain physical or cultural traits as Catalan (or Spanish), and the way in which discussions about immigration have entered the political agenda over the last three years.

"Who is an immigrant? Someone who has crossed a border. Not people who look foreign or the children of people with a migration history," Diallo summarizes. The expert on institutional racism emphasizes that people of foreign origin born in Catalonia "are always denied their Catalan identity" and are "condemned to eternally feel like outsiders," even though, at first glance, it's impossible to distinguish a lifelong Catalan from someone who has adopted Catalonia as their homeland. "There are no second-generation Catalans, there are Catalans. Nor are there people ofimmigrant origin"Because everyone has origins somewhere," he adds. Muñoz agrees: "Possibly, some of the people who respond this way to the survey do so because they consider people born into immigrant families to be immigrants. Others, because they are supporters of anti-immigration parties."

In fact, for Muñoz, this drastic increase in the percentage of Catalans who believe they see more immigrants than there actually are has a significant political influence. Immigration has gained considerable importance in public opinion. For example, in June, the debate on harsher penalties for repeat offenders was on the table, and the far right (Vox and Aliança Catalana) is sending openly anti-immigration messages. This is not by chance. "It's a conscious strategy to exaggerate the magnitude of the phenomenon and turn an anecdote into a distortion," says Muñoz. Prejudices and frustrations

The survey, which included 6,706 people over the age of 16 residing in Catalonia, was conducted between October 9 and December 9, 2025—before the Spanish government approved the extraordinary regularization of migrants—and aims to study the changing attitudes of Catalans over the years. Within the immigration section, Catalans rated the contribution of this group to the Catalan economy at 6.3 out of 10, its contribution to culture at 5.4, and its contribution to social cohesion at 5.1. "If you ask a random person on the street what the main causes of the housing crisis are, it's not surprising that they'll now tell you it's squatting—which doesn't even reach 0.06% of the public housing stock—and also immigration, instead of scrutinizing how housing policies have been implemented in recent years," Diallo comments.

The UdG researcher emphasizes that only those arriving from poor countries are labeled "immigrants." "When white people cross the border, in most cases they are considered tourists,exados "and foreigners," he indicates. According to experts, the problematization of immigration is associated with political and structural shortcomings and is gaining strength among those groups who at some point believed in a political option that has not met their expectations and have ended up frustrated and accepting a solution. simplistic"So, your problem isn't that there isn't investment in public housing or regulation of the rental market, or that more than 50% of homes purchased in Catalonia are bought with cash and are therefore purchased by investment funds, but rather that Fatima and Mamadou have registered as residents in your neighborhood," Diallo summarizes.

The survey also asks about participants' comfort with the idea of ​​their child's partner being born abroad; a measure known in sociology as social distance, which indicates the extent to which a person accepts close personal contact with members of another group. Lower percentages signify greater self-perceived distance, and this question clearly reveals the persistence of specific prejudices toward certain groups. Two-thirds of Catalans say they would be comfortable if their child had a relationship with a Black, Latin American, or East Asian person, but only 38% would accept it if the son-in-law or daughter-in-law were North African, and 53% if they were Roma.