Who plays what? The guide not to get lost in the Andalusian elections

MadridAndalusia is the last stop before the municipal elections and the general elections scheduled for 2027. The most populated region of the State ends the regional electoral cycle that began on December 21 in Extremadura and that, five months later, culminates in a key event to measure the forces of the PP, the PSOE, Vox and the alternative left. After the elections in Aragon on February 8 and in Castile and Leon on March 15 drew a panorama practically identical to Extremadura, with PP victories insufficient to govern alone, these elections could mean a change of script for the popular party, under the leadership of the Andalusian president, Juanma Moreno.

Absolute majority or dependence

The main unknown in this Sunday's Andalusian elections is whether Moreno will revalidate the absolute majority or be forced to fall into the arms of Vox, as has happened to his counterparts María Guardiola, Jorge Azcón, and Alfonso Fernández Mañueco. The first two have already agreed to the far-right's entry into government, after accepting the concept of "national priority" in the distribution of public aid, and the third is in full negotiation. Polls suggest it is a plausible scenario that the candidate for the Andalusian PP will manage to avoid this dependence and can continue to govern alone. He is close to the 55 seats of the absolute majority, but with a very tight result, which will prolong the tension until the last moment.

Eight constituencies on the edge

With such a close photo-finish, the last seat in each province can shake up the final picture. The fact that the eight Andalusian constituencies are of "medium or large" size – the smallest, Jaén and Huelva, share 11 seats, and the largest, Seville, 18 – means that "10,000 or 20,000 votes can sway the result in many provinces", reflects José Manuel Trujillo, a political science professor at the Pablo de Olavide University of Seville, in a conversation with ARA. Four years ago, in Granada, "the last seat [out of 13] depended on about 1,400 votes, which eventually went to the PP". Trujillo adds that no matter how much "the percentages are more or less clear" – with the PP slightly above 40%, according to polls –, "a variation of two points from one province to another can cause a shift of one or two seats", which in such a tight scenario can be decisive.

The duration of the Vox effect

Vox began the electoral cycle by doubling its results in Extremadura. Despite also growing in the Aragon and Castile and León elections, in the latter it experienced a slowdown. The Andalusian elections will be the first elections to measure the electoral effect of the regional pacts signed in the last month with the PP and the mobilization capacity through the banner of "national priority". With an electorate a priori more centrist, in favor of the PP, and with a candidate, Moreno, with a profile capable of attracting PSOE electorate, polls predict a stagnation of Santiago Abascal's party around 14%, which is a minimal improvement compared to 2022. If Vox is not decisive in Andalusia, Alberto Núñez Feijóo will gain breathing room regarding the far-right. On the other hand, if the popular "baron" who embodies moderation within the party has to make a pact, the generalized link of the PP with Abascal's party will be consolidated.

The PSOE's floor

Beyond the right's situation, the elections on May 17 will reveal the PSOE's floor. There is no poll that gives the left any chance of governing, and the doubt for now is whether María Jesús Montero will fall below the 30 seats obtained four years ago, the worst historical result for the Socialists in Andalusia. Pedro Sánchez has sent the person who until recently was his right-hand man to the council of ministers to face the challenge of preventing the defeat, in what had been one of his historical strongholds, from being even wider. Trujillo points out that the fact of sending a profile with a state trajectory there is partly explained by the fact that in the 2023 Spanish elections, the PSOE had better results in Andalusia than in the regional elections the previous year. In this regard, the success or failure of the former first vice-president will also be a acid test for the Spanish president facing the Spanish elections.

The unit test on the left

For the left of the PSOE, Andalusia is a test of the effectiveness of unity in full configuration of the state alliance of IU, Sumar, Més Madrid and Comuns for state elections. For the first time since 2023, Sumar and Podem are once again running together in the same candidacy, Per Andalusia, led by the state leader of Esquerra Unida (IU), Antonio Maíllo. Polls point to an improvement in results, but some predict that another ballot, that of Endavant Andalusia, could overtake them (sorpasso). It is an Andalusianist option, with a candidate, José Ignacio García, who is the best valued according to the latest Andalusian CIS and who, freed from any organic link with the Spanish government, can attract a left-wing "protest vote" for the state management of recent years, points out Trujillo.