Who is leaving Junts?

BarcelonaNot very noisy, but the electoral drums are beginning to be heard. The elections to the Parliament of Catalonia are still far off on the calendar, but in 2027 we will have a first test in the municipal elections and, who knows, perhaps there could be legislative elections in the State sooner than expected. Meanwhile, the polls that are being published are beginning to show some important underlying movements. One of these is the progressive decline of Junts, indicated by multiple surveys. In the May 2024 elections, Junts obtained second place, with 21.59% of the votes, while in the latest survey by the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, estimates attributed between 11% and 13% of the votes to them (and a loss of about 18 seats).

It is, at this point, about future possibilities and speculations that fuel the political battle, but which internally are already causing some movement and opening various scenarios. What is happening? Is the flight of the pro Aliança Catalana profile the only factor in the projected decline? It is worth clarifying here that Junts' electorate is more heterogeneous than some stereotypes might suggest: it groups together voters aligned with the leadership and its political proposals, moderate voters, center-left voters, "status quo" voters, and voters for whom immigration is essentially important.

Profiles that move away from Junts

The joint analysis of all polls conducted since 2024 shows us various profiles of the Junts voter who is moving away from the party. Those we could call 'puigdemontistes', that is, people with a good rating of Carles Puigdemont, Míriam Nogueras and aligned with the party's strategy, are those who show a lower probability of leaving. However, even among the most loyal, the retention capacity is low: the party would retain six out of ten.

The two types of pro-independence voters who seem to be drifting away the most are those who prioritize the migratory issue and those with a more liberal profile, especially from an economic point of view (two profiles that, although they have a certain point of contact, form two different blocs). They are also profiles that, nowadays, prioritize the territorial issue less. Puigdemont's party would be losing more than 40% of voters from each bloc.

Finally, the "status quoists" are the voters of Junts who often define themselves as "pragmatic", but what essentially characterizes them is an ambiguous ideology, the will to defend thestatus quo and a high aversion to risk for changes. They represent a small part of the Junts pie and, if we trust statistical models, it is increasingly so (only one in four would vote for them).

Are there good news for Junts?

From the Junts ranks, it is recalled that polls often underestimate them, and they are not entirely wrong. In 2024, their percentage of votes was higher than in almost all published polls. Someone might say that potential Junts voters have certain characteristics that cause them not to respond to polls or to be unreachable. This does not seem to be the case. Part of the underestimation seems to be due to the fact that, as time goes by, some Junts voters adapt their voting memory towards options that seem more socially desirable at any given moment (the so-called retrospective consistency bias), which leads to them not being detected in polls.

There are also other points for Junts' hope of a certain comeback. A significant group of their voters, especially those from the center-left, but also from the political center, show a certain degree of indecision. Even some who say they will vote for AC or ERC do so half-heartedly (which means, in demographic terms, that they show an inconsistent transition towards other parties). These are profiles concentrated mainly in the central and southern regions of Catalonia, areas of the country where the party has traditionally achieved good results.

The curious graph of the week

Next year there are municipal elections and it shows. Streets under construction, clean public spaces, or mayors who are prolific in attending events, from institutional to more personal ones. The reader will also have noticed another change: the major festivals seem to be celebrating big (pardon the redundancy). This is what is known as the economic-political cycle, already detailed by William Nordhaus in 1975, and which explains the strategic movements of leaders when trying to convince voters who essentially remember the most recent. The major festivals are part of this logic. Among the largest cities in Catalonia, Cornellà de Llobregat, Santa Coloma de Gramenet, and Mataró lead per capita spending (budgeted). It is the small towns, however, that tend to spend much more, often more than €100 per inhabitant (registered).