BarcelonaNot very loud, but the electoral drums are starting to be heard. The elections to the Parliament of Catalonia are still far off on the calendar, but in 2027 we will have a first test in the municipal elections and, who knows, perhaps there could be legislative elections in the State sooner than expected. Meanwhile, the surveys that are being published are beginning to show some important underlying movements. One of these is the progressive decline of Junts, indicated by multiple polls. In the May 2024 elections, Junts obtained the second position, with 21.59% of the votes, while in the latest survey by the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, estimates attributed between 11% and 13% of the votes to it (and a loss of about 18 seats).
It is, at this point, about future possibilities and speculations that feed the political battle, but which internally are already causing some movement and opening various scenarios. What is happening? Is the flight of the pro Aliança Catalana profile the only factor in the projected decline? It is worth clarifying here that Junts' electorate is more heterogeneous than some stereotypes might attribute to them: it groups together electors aligned with the leadership and its political proposals, moderate voters, center-left voters, "status quo" voters, and voters for whom immigration is essentially important.
Profiles distancing themselves from Junts
The joint analysis of all polls conducted since 2024 shows us various profiles of the Junts voter who is moving away from the party. Those we could call 'puigdemontistas', that is, people with a good assessment of Carles Puigdemont, Míriam Nogueras and aligned with the party's strategy, are those who show a lower probability of leaving. However, even among the most loyal, retention capacity is low: the party would retain six out of ten.
The two types of pro-independence voters who seem to be drifting away the most are those who prioritize the immigration issue and those with a more liberal profile, especially from an economic point of view (two profiles that, although they have a certain point of contact, form two different blocs). They are also profiles that, nowadays, prioritize the territorial issue less. Puigdemont's party would be losing more than 40% of voters from each bloc.
Finally, the "statu quoists" are the voters of Junts who often define themselves as "pragmatic", but what essentially characterizes them is an ambiguous ideology, the desire to defend the status quo and a high aversion to risk for changes. They represent a small part of the Junts pie and, if we believe statistical models, it is increasingly so (only one in four would vote for them).
Are there any good news for Junts?
From the Junts ranks, it is recalled that polls often underestimate them and they are not entirely wrong. In 2004 their percentage of votes was higher than in almost all published surveys. Someone might say that potential Junts voters have certain characteristics that make them not respond to polls or not be contactable to do so. This does not seem to be the case. Part of the underestimation seems to be due to the fact that, as time goes by, some Junts voters adapt their voting record towards options that seem socially more desirable at each moment (the so-called retrospective consistency bias), which leads to them not being detected in polls.
There are also other points for Junts' hope for a certain comeback. A significant group of their voters, especially those from the centre-left, but also from the political centre, show a certain degree of indecision. Even some who say they will vote for AC or ERC do so reluctantly (which means, in demographic terms, that they show an inconsistent transition towards other formations). These are profiles concentrated mainly in the central and southern regions of Catalonia, areas of the country where the party has traditionally achieved good results.
The curious graph of the week
Next year there are municipal elections and it shows. Streets under construction, clean public spaces, or mayors who are seen at events, from institutional to more personal ones. The reader will also have noticed another change: the main festivals seem to be having a big party (excuse the redundancy). This is what is known as the economic-political cycle, detailed by William Nordhaus in 1975, which explains the strategic movements of leaders when trying to convince voters who essentially remember the most recent. The main festivals are part of this logic. Among the largest cities in Catalonia, Cornellà de Llobregat, Santa Coloma de Gramenet, and Mataró lead per capita (budgeted) spending. However, it is the small towns that tend to spend much more, often more than €100 per inhabitant (registered).
