The first polls give victory to the PSC on 12-M with Junts in second place

BarcelonaThe first polls on the May 12 elections, published this Monday in El Español and La Razón, point to a clear victory for the PSC, with a majority of between 36 and 42 seats, and give second place to Junts, which would overtake ERC at the polls. According to these surveys, therefore, Pere Aragonès's party would be the main loser compared to the 2021 elections. The commons could also suffer the consequences of the early elections, protagonists in recent weeks of the legislature for their no

to the budgets. A third poll published by El Periódico points to a dispute between Esquerra and Junts for second place, but gives a slight advantage to Junts, with a vote share of 18.5%; the republicans are left behind with 18%.

The first poll, conducted by Sociométrica and published in 

El Español, gives the socialists 42 seats (nine more than now), 33 to Junts (two more) and 28 to ERC (five fewer), while that of La Razón, carried out by NC Report from 1,000 telephone and internet interviews, places Salvador Illa's party with 36-37 deputies, Carles Puigdemont's with 32-33 and the republicans with 30-31. The commons, in turn, would obtain 5-6 (they currently have 8), according to both polls, which also indicate a decline for the CUP: from the current 9 representatives, they would go down to between 4 and 7.

Regarding the parties on the right, the main beneficiary of the early elections would be the PP, which would go from the 3 seats it won in 2021 to 12-13 deputies, thus becoming the fourth force in the Catalan chamber. The good results of the popular party, in turn, would prevent the growth of the far-right Vox, which according to the El Español poll would match the current 11 deputies and which, according to La Razón, could fall to 9.

According to the survey by El Periódico, the PSC would win the Catalan elections with between 35 and 38 seats and Esquerra and Junts could tie in a range of 29 and 32 deputies. The fieldwork for the survey, carried out by Gesop, was done on May 14 and 15, after the announcement of the call and coinciding with the approval of the amnesty. The survey detects little mobilization and a lot of indecision among Catalans. Furthermore, it gives between 12 and 14 seats to the PP and predicts a triple tie between CUP, Vox and comuns with between 7 and 9 deputies. Cs would not have any, while Aliança Catalana could enter Parliament with up to 3 seats.

On the other hand, the surveys by La Razón and El Español rule out the entry into the chamber of the fourth pro-independence space, which will foreseeably be contested by the far-right Aliança Catalana and the new party of Clara Ponsatí and Jordi Graupera.