Opinion polls are the political translation of public opinion's mood at a given moment, and the snapshot that emerges from the poll we published these days in ARA is that of a restless society. It could be described as frustrated. The fact is that the symptoms it presents are those of a fearful society that reacts by turning to the most irate. Polls mark social trends, and in the YouGov poll, we see a government with a president who doesn't excite, but maintains, albeit slightly down, the expectations for the PSC, a Republican Left that would have hit rock bottom and would be on the rise, and a far-right that is soaring. Catalan Alliance places third in voting intention, Vox continues to advance, and both threaten Junts. The Junts supporters are immersed in a serious project crisis and would lose votes on the right and left.Clearly, the moment in which the fieldwork was done can always influence the responses, and in this case, it coincided with the presentation of Gabriel Rufián's personal project, which has leveraged social media communication and effective populism, whether in the Congress tribune or in videos with activist Vito Quiles. The result is that it boosts ERC and keeps it in second place.
We will move forward with the publication of the poll, and it is striking that the most popular leaders are Rufián and the leader of Catalan Alliance, Sílvia Orriols, who appear as the best-rated politicians. It would be a mistake to attribute their popularity solely to their communication style. The connection they have achieved with the most irate segment of society requires traditional politics to act with courage and address the issues that are of concern, which are many, but especially housing access and immigration, which populists have managed to confuse with insecurity.
Miraculous and seemingly strong leaderships share a lack of nuance, preparation for public management, and responses when questions become sophisticated and delve into the details of putting them into practice. That's why they prefer philippics on social media or parliamentary platforms over the precise answers formulated by journalists from serious media outlets with their demanding readers.
Rufián's popularity is a double-edged sword within ERC, which can benefit from it, but cannot rely on the predictability of a lone wolf. Rufián has long been going his own way regarding the party's leadership, does not participate in decision-making bodies, and does not even speak with his colleagues in the parliamentary group in Madrid. One thing is the ability to attract attention on social media, and quite another is reading bills and defending amendments with knowledge of the issues to be addressed.
The trend shown by the poll is worrying for the future of Junts per Catalunya. Its voters are abandoning ship in the direction of Aliança Catalana and also towards ERC, and its leaders are losing magnetism. Junts is trying to regain the ideological profile of a center-right party in Madrid, but it is not clear that this will be enough for its voters, frustrated by the outcome of the Procés, orphaned by the exile of its undisputed leader, and perhaps nostalgic for the negotiating style of the old convergence. The strategy of pacts and confrontation in Madrid at the same time needs some success, perhaps the immigration control policy that is being negotiated with the PSOE. But the fact is that they are harmed by the confrontation and at the same time by the support of Pedro Sánchez's government, and the votes are going in two directions. Perhaps a return of President Puigdemont would change the perspective, but that is not the current situation.
The speed of immigration growth –especially that which does not coincide in customs and religion with that of the majority of Catalans– in some Catalan towns has become an issue to be addressed with courage and common sense from the public sphere. The tension on the seams of welfare state services, mixed with Islamophobia, is a dangerous cocktail for social cohesion that already appears perfectly in the polls. For lack of addressing the issues with courage, realism, and by setting limits to xenophobes openly by traditional parties, support is growing for those who respond with rage and supremacism. It is clear that base passions are understood much faster than the need to pay taxes to guarantee cohesion and social mobility, transparency in management, the demand for rights and duties, and the defense of a common civic framework based on the laws that bind us all. If parliamentary opposition were to fall into the hands of the far-right, it would be disastrous for political debate in Catalonia.
It is clear that polls only show trends, but those observed are not reassuring for those who want a prosperous, cohesive, and non-polarized country.
