Second round assumptions and with "boxes"

BarcelonaRarely (very rarely or never) do you attend the presentation of the same budget project twice in a year. This is what has happened on this occasion in Parliament, where the accounts for the remainder of the fiscal year have been submitted, after they were withdrawn last February due to disagreement with ERC.

Now, Salvador Illa's government, after holding on for a few months with a credit supplement – the republicans' formula to distance themselves temporarily from the PSC executive, but without breaking or causing elections, as already happened last year –, manages to have its first accounts of the legislature, which began in 2024. This will also serve to give the Government some breathing room, unlike what is happening at the state level, where Pedro Sánchez's executive is on the verge of completing the four years of its term without public accounts.

The fact is that, despite three months having passed since the previous presentation and incorporating agreements, especially with ERC but also with Comuns, the total budget figure is the same as in February, 49,162 million euros. Magic? Well, the secret lies in some "little boxes" – in the terminology used by the Minister of Economy, Alícia Romero –, reserves of resources that were made in case agreements were reached with potential partners. This was done through two additional provisions. The first, of 360 million that were included in the contingency fund, to cover possible pacts with the republicans that were not ultimately achieved and which, therefore, were already incorporated into the February totals.

The remaining 530 million will fill another "little box" that was reserved and represents additional foreseen income thanks to the dynamism of the economy, which does not seem to have been drastically affected so far by the impact of the war in Iran. The additional provision establishes that these resources, which will end up increasing the total budget figure – if they truly arrive –, will go to cover the pacts with the partners that have allowed the accounts to move forward. The only doubt, given that these are budgets that will begin to be executed in the summer, is whether the foreseen additional collection figures will be achieved. The volume of income is usually much more difficult to predict than that of expenses, which are certain and growing. It is certainly true that they can be less, but they can also be more. We shall see.

According to the bill, non-financial revenues, 48,231 million, will increase by 27.9% compared to the last approved accounts, those of 2023. Particularly noteworthy are those from the financing model, 32,894 million, with an increase of 30.3%, and those from own and ceded taxes, with a record of 6,481 million and an increase of 30.6%.

And another issue is that of a possible agreement with the teachers. In view of this possibility, there is no other "box" or reserve of resources foreseen, as has happened with the agreements with ERC and Comuns, and if the allocation for Education is not enough, which will most likely be the case, money will have to be taken from some other items. The Government is optimistic because they consider that from a budget of 50,000 million, it will not be difficult to extract resources for the teachers. Perhaps it would not have been a bad idea to have another little box in reserve.