How long will the new Catalan oasis last?

Salvador Illa's first six months as president of the Generalitat have been marked by apparent stability despite the precariousness of his parliamentary majority. Without the capacity to approve the 2025 budget or a clear legislative agenda, his government finds itself in an arithmetic situation identical to that of the Republican government of Pere Aragonès, but Isla and the PSC have managed to establish a narrative of governability that allows them to move forward without strong opposition or significant social mobilization.

One of the most surprising things about these first few months of the government is the pacification of the sectors that, until recently, had been constantly showing their discontent with the government's policies. The education unions, with USTEC at the forefront, have stopped announcing mobilisations; the health groups have reduced their level of protest, and the peasants, who at other times have led important mobilisations, have given a vote of confidence to the government's promises. This sudden calm has turned Catalonia into a sort of political oasis where no one feels particularly uncomfortable with the management of the socialist executive.

One of the elements that contribute to this peaceful scenario is the institutional complicity enjoyed by Salvador Illa. Governing with the support of the majority of town councils, especially in the metropolitan area of ​​Barcelona, ​​gives him considerable political strength. In addition, the direct connection with Pedro Sánchez's government allows him to have direct access to state resources and support, a more favourable situation than any other president of the Generalitat has had in recent decades. This allows him to avoid conflicts, put out fires before they break out and consolidate an image of stability that most citizens like.

However, Salvador Illa is not perceived as a leader who transmits leadership, nor does the Government stand out for its impactful measures. His communication strategy is based on a constant presence in the political debate, with frequent interventions and a pragmatic discourse that connects with a good part of society, which accuses a deep exhaustion of politics. Without stridency or grand gestures, Illa has managed to project an image of normality that, for the moment, seems to play in his favor.

However, this almost idyllic scenario could begin to falter if there is a change in the Moncloa. The dependence of the PSC on the continuity of Pedro Sánchez seems evident, and any alteration in this political balance could call into question the stability of the Catalan government. However, the PSC has never hidden its agenda, clearly focused on presenting Catalonia more as an autonomous community than as a nation, an approach that has the support of a significant sector of the electorate.

Today, unlike what has happened for years, the focus of Catalan politics is no longer in Barcelona, ​​but in Madrid. The central axis of the legislature is the Congress of Deputies, where the pro-independence parties have a decisive position in Spanish governance, which has diverted attention from strictly Catalan debates and has helped Isla to govern without a strong opposition demanding much of him.

This lack of pressure explains why no one blames the socialist government for not having a budget for 2025 and why no one has asked where and with what money the 20 new flats a day will be built, counting Saturdays and Sundays, to reach the 50,000 flats promised for 2030. At other times, they allow the PSC to win matches without having to get off the bus.

While in Catalonia the government is being governed without noise, in Madrid everything is fireworks, gesticulation and tension. Nobody is interested in Pedro Sánchez's government going down the rocky path because the alternative of a government of the right and the extreme right does not please anyone. Each vote is presented as a box or a belt of the Spanish legislature, but it seems that when it comes down to it, nobody is interested in breaking the crockery. Neither the Catalan and Basque parties, nor Sumar, which although it may not seem so, is the PSOE's governing partner, can see any virtue in mortally wounding a legislature where everything seems instrumental and where more calculations are made than politics.