Trump's constant plot twists: from threatening to raze Iran to seeking a pact with the ayatollahs
The North American president tries to justify the conflict before his voters without much success
WashingtonFrom threatening to erase Iran from the map to announcing an agreement within hours… which then doesn't materialize. From stating (about 40 times) that the war is about to end to assuring that he is in no hurry to end the conflict. And from making rising prices his main campaign objective to saying he "loves" inflation and that the latest figures don't worry him; in fact, they are "great".
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, embarked on a war alongside Israel against Iran on February 28, and since then has made great efforts to convince his voters that he was doing the right thing. But the tycoon has had to make continuous 180-degree turns in how he explains, justifies, and conceives the conflict and its objectives, in many cases within hours.
"They have rejected every opportunity to give up their nuclear ambitions and we cannot let this pass any longer. They are trying to rebuild their nuclear program and continue developing long-range missiles that can threaten our friends and allies in Europe and our troops, and soon they will be able to reach American territory," Trump said in February, when he announced the first bombings of Iran.
Getting Iran to agree to end its nuclear program has been, from the beginning, the apparent ultimate goal of the United States, the reason why it was worth entering a war. However, in recent weeks, the American administration has raised hopes of achieving lasting peace with a pact that leaves out the nuclear issue, which will be addressed later.
"An entire civilization will die tonight, never to be seen again," Trump wrote on his social mediaWhat is the meaning of these plot twists? What exactly is Trump looking for with all of this? The closest circle to the president assures that they are relying on a "maximum pressure" strategy to try to reduce Iran's nuclear program, which, combined with sanctions and military attacks, they hope will have an effect and achieve Iran's surrender. But many criticize this approach and point out that there is no clear objective and that the war is already dragging on too long.
A deeply unpopular war
"The government's stated objectives have been changing throughout the conflict, and they even changed before it began," opines Ariane Tabatabai in an analysis published in the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, a non-profit organization dedicated to the analysis of international relations, "There is a scenario where everyone just moves on and then moves on to another objective and says 'mission accomplished.' I think that's a possibility because we've already seen Trump do the same thing elsewhere. And with only a few months left until the midterm elections, and this is a deeply unpopular war, so there's a possibility he'll say 'we've done what we had to do, let's move on to something else.'"
This scenario could now be closer than ever, given the impatience Trump is showing. The fall in his approval rating, which is now at its lowest level of his two terms; the legislative elections in November, in which his party could lose control of the House of Representatives, and the effect that a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is having on American inflation make the president see it as increasingly necessary to end the war.
But there have been other moments when the president has shown impatience, and the bombs have not fallen silent because of it. The peak was when Trump threatened to annihilate Iran. The president usually exaggerates in his social media messages, but in April this strategy reached an unprecedented level. "An entire civilization will die tonight, for never again," Trump wrote on his social network, Truth Social. Hours later, he announced a two-week ceasefire.
Two months have passed since then, the ceasefire remains in effect – on paper, and despite attacks from all parties involved – and an agreement continues to fail to materialize. And this week, the president has opted to once again threaten with strong attacks, only to proclaim hours later that the pact is closer than ever, which Iranians reject.
