The United States want to be mediators in Ukraine again

BarcelonaIt is a long time ago now the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, in Alaska, where the American president received his Russian counterpart – against whom an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court is pending – with a red carpet. That August, the leaders spoke of a possible general peace framework in Ukraine that would involve Kyiv ceding the Donbas region. The optimism of the meeting crystallized in three-way negotiations in Geneva, in February of this year, which were abruptly interrupted without any agreement. Since then, it seemed that the White House —distracted by the war in the Middle East— had set aside diplomacy in Ukraine.

But this Thursday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to try to regain the mediation initiative in Ukraine. During the conversation, as part of the ASEAN (Asian nations) summit in Manila, according to the Kremlin, the Russian leader informed his counterpart of "the real situation" on the front, and reproached him for "arming" Kyiv.

In fact, while the Trump administration began by cutting off arms shipments to its ally, it has gradually opened the tap and this July granted Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot missiles on its territory. A shift that has also been reflected in Washington's rhetoric: recently, Marco Rubio has described the Russian military campaign as a "strategic failure" and has assured that Russia has no chance of winning the war.

Perhaps that is why he finds that now is a good time to negotiate again. Washington has not given many details about the meeting with Lavrov, but has made it clear that it wants to play a mediator role in Ukraine again: "We must have a relationship with the Russian government, even if we have points of disagreement. And in the case of Ukraine, perhaps we have an opportunity, if we can play a constructive role, to put an end" to the conflict, Rubio stressed.

But the Kremlin has cooled expectations and, through its spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has stated that it is not very optimistic about reaching a quick agreement to end the war. Nevertheless, Peskov has invited American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow when they are available to continue negotiating.

Points of discord

What, then, do the United States propose? From the brief statements issued by the respective offices of the leaders, the meeting —which lasted only 35 minutes— has not led to much progress in bringing positions closer. However, the Kremlin assures that Washington has not yet given up on the proposals put forward by Putin in Alaska, which would imply Moscow controlling Donbas, so this could be the starting point for future negotiations.

With the same proposal on the table, then, the points of discord remain entrenched. Kyiv refuses to cede territory without real guarantees and demands a security presence to prevent future Russian incursions. And Moscow maintains that any guarantee must include its right of veto and that Ukraine must be neutral.