The war in Iran reveals that "America First" has always been "Trump First."

WashingtonThe first week of the war in Iran reveals what was already hinted at by the military intervention in Venezuela in January: "America First" has always been "Trump First." Donald Trump is not the first US president to win the election promising not to get involved in foreign conflicts. Woodrow Wilson did so in 1916, only to end up embroiled in World War I, and George W. Bush, in 2000, only to end up invading Iraq under the pretext of nonexistent weapons of mass destruction. But getting entangled in a military campaign in Iran Without a clear narrative to sell to the public, the grassroots are another story. While within the party there is resignation, outside, the leader's offensive has cleared the movement.

Trump still believes his messianic leader image will be enough to justify any of his decisions. The attack on Tehran is the maximalist version of his phrase: "I could shoot anyone and still not lose voters." But the reality is that the conflict has created the latest rift within the MAGA movement. While the president and members of the administration got bogged down in justifications and changed their story about the objective of the war, tensions between the two factions at the grassroots leveled sharply.

Prominent commentators within the Trumpian sphere, such as former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, have criticized the president for breaking his promise. Carlson called the attack "absolutely disgusting and evil" and warned that it would have a strong impact on the base: "This will profoundly change the game." Kelly, for his part, has questioned the extent to which the conflict benefits American interests. Trump, who interprets any criticism as betrayal, has already lashed out at Carlson, saying he has "lost his way." Those who remain loyal to Trump have come to his defense. podcaster Ben Shapiro was among the first to openly confront Tucker and Kelly. "Don't you like President Trump? Don't you like what he says? Just say his name, you coward," Shapiro said on his show. "You're an incredible coward. Tucker and Megyn too: they're incredibly cowardly."

The Cost of Dead Soldiers

Also noteworthy was the clash between Laura Loomer and Marjorie Taylor Greene on social media. Greene, who went from being a loyal follower to a black sheep because of the Epstein case, She strongly criticized Loomer's comments justifying the conflict. After the first three American soldiers were reported dead, the influencer The far-right spoke of them as "American heroes," and Greene lashed out at her. "This witch celebrates the deaths of American soldiers and thanks their families for their blood sacrifice. [...] Enlist in the army, Laura! Go to the front lines, Laura! Maybe then they'll give you a gun. You don't love Trump enough if you're not going to fight Iran."

While Greene has already become an outcast, banished from Trump's inner circle, Loomer has managed to climb the ranks to become an influential voice. With Signalgate, the scandal involving a journalist's inclusion in a messaging group where Vice President JD Vance discussed with other high-ranking officials the details of an attack on Yemen that had violated security protocols, Loomer met privately with Trump at the White House. The following day, the president announced the first dismissals for the colossal blunder of the war chat. Those in power justify Trump to keep him in office, and those without as much power head straight for the clash. Amidst all the mud, Steve Bannon seems to be swimming and keeping his head above water. In his podcast, War roomHe didn't use such strong adjectives to talk about the conflict, but he did question it. And he warned: "If [the war] is to drag on and become more complicated, I want to say that this wasn't on the agenda for the 2024 campaign, it simply wasn't. We will lose support."

The dotted line along which the base is fracturing is the same one around which the president's inner circle has closed ranks: the acceptance that it's not about the "America First" slogan proclaimed during the election campaign, but about the leader's will above all else. Vice President Vance, one of the most visible faces of Trumpian isolationism and opposed to new conflicts, has remained quieter than usual these days. During his public presentation at the cRepublican convention, Vance, who served as marine in IraqHe disavowed Bush and called the war "wrong."

Despite all the external noise, the president's iron grip on the party remains. Both the Republican majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives blocked two proposals this week to limit Trump's war powers. The only exception, once again, is Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie. The legislator was the only Republican in the House to vote with the Democrats in favor of reining in the tycoon. "Our Constitution grants Congress the initial powers to declare war," Massie said during the session.

The key: the price of oil

If even the grassroots supporters of the movement that returned Trump to the White House can no longer justify their leader, how will the tycoon fare with the average voter? The president has decided to wage an election war—as analysts call it—with the polls in hand: his popularity was plummeting before the conflict, and the collateral damage only promises to worsen it. The images of police violence in Minnesota, with the killing of two citizens by ICE, had already damaged Trump. But the source of great discontent among citizens was seeing that the campaign's golden promise was not being fulfilled: Trump governs, but the cost of living keeps rising. Now, the price of crude oil has jumped 12%, to $90 a barrel, and threatens to make life more expensive for Americans. Not to mention the latest unemployment figures: 92,000 jobs were lost in February, and the unemployment rate is now around 4.4%, higher than analysts predicted. The report published Friday by the Department of Labor further darkens the outlook, where the only thing on the horizon is the murmur of the possibility of sending troops to the region. Trump has made it clear that he is not ruling it out. Meanwhile, the White House is scrambling to try to mitigate the foreseeable consequences of rising oil prices. Just as is happening with the Pentagon's ammunition reserves, jAfter a year of defending Israel in the region, one of the factors that will determine how long Trump can sustain this war will be oil.