The EU is struggling to rebuild the road that leads to Moscow

BrusselsThe European Union wants to have a say in the war in Ukraine again. After months on the sidelines of negotiations sponsored by Donald Trump, which were paralyzed as soon as the war with Iran began, Brussels considers that there is now a momentum for diplomacy with Russia and to put an end to the Ukrainian conflict.

the joint G-7 declaration this week, in which pressure on Moscow was redoubledNow, European leaders believe they could have another opportunity to derail this route. On the one hand, Ukrainian drone offensives on Moscow have instilled fear in the Kremlin, which has been forced to cut off internet access for its population. On the other hand, the freezing of the conflict in Iran gives Kyiv hopes of regaining media and diplomatic focus, especially by taking advantage of Donald Trump's recent alignment with Ukraine's interests. The clearest show of support was the joint declaration of the G-7 this week, in which pressure on Moscow was redoubled and Vladimir Putin was demanded to accept negotiating peace. All this without overlooking that Viktor Orbán's departure as leader of the European Union has allowed for unanimous conclusions supporting Ukraine for the first time at a European summit since 2024.

In this context, the President of the European Council, António Costa, has admitted to having maintained contacts in recent days with high-ranking officials close to the Kremlin for the first time since 2022. Spurred on by Zelenski's words, who in April asked the EU to take on a role in mediation that Trump had left vacant, the Portuguese leader asked his chief of staff to explore the ground for reactivating peace negotiations in Ukraine. "What I am doing through my office is establishing a diplomatic channel because we cannot depend only on others to interpret Russian messages," he assured this Friday from the leaders' summit in Brussels.

Although the European Commission views it favorably, the move has once again triggered debate and fueled discrepancies among member states. The European leaders' dinner this Thursday grew cold as the discussion on Ukraine unexpectedly dragged on. This point was meant to be quickly concluded with the celebration of Kyiv's first steps towards accession, but discussions got bogged down until the early hours due to disagreements over the community club's mediating role with Moscow.

France and Germany, the strongest member states and those wanting to maintain the initiative in talks with Moscow – along with the United Kingdom – without going through the EU umbrella, were the ones responsible for raising the alarm about Costa's negotiating moves. It was precisely the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the then German chancellor Olaf Scholz who spearheaded the last negotiating attempt with the Kremlin in 2022.

In contrast, the majority of member states are closer to the community stance of negotiating as a bloc. States such as Italy, Spain, Belgium, or Austria have shown themselves to be in favor of reopening the diplomatic channel with the Kremlin in a coordinated manner. In fact, Giorgia Meloni herself openly spoke of the need to find a consensus figure who could represent the interests of the community club and lead this diplomatic endeavor.

In the minority, there is also a small group of states that categorically refuse to negotiate. These are Russia's neighbors, the Baltics, and the Eastern European countries, who feel its threat more keenly and argue that the recent incidents involving Russian drones on their borders have highlighted their vulnerability.

The clash became visible during this summit, and informally, some countries complained that they had not been previously informed of Costa's cabinet's intentions. But the Portuguese leader downplayed the criticism, making it clear that "the European Union is not and does not intend to be a mediator" because it is clearly partisan. "The EU is on Ukraine's side, has been on Ukraine's side during the war, and will be on its side after the war," he said.

Security guarantees

Member states that want to negotiate directly with Russia argue that the main sticking point in negotiations is the so-called security guarantees –meaning the deployment of military capabilities in Ukraine to ensure that Moscow does not attack the continent again–, which are the responsibility of national governments. But Brussels refers to EU treaties to argue that they are responsible for diplomatic functions and the main architects of all sanctions applied against Russia.

Be that as it may, the confrontation highlights a debate that European leaders will sooner or later have to address: what will be their position when the Kremlin agrees to sit down and negotiate? Some voices, like the German Chancellor, argue that now is the time to establish a common framework instead of focusing on who should lead the European part of the negotiations. But there are others, like the Belgian Prime Minister, who do not hide their preferences. "I was just talking about you, António," Bart De Wever assured when the President of the European Council passed by him while speaking to the press. "You are the only one representing us, we will send you to Moscow," he told him. "This is because you don't want me in Brussels," joked the Portuguese leader.

For now, however, all leaders agree on one thing: that the time to sit down and talk with Russia has not yet arrived. The Kremlin has made it clear that it has no intention of negotiating a just peace, and the EU hopes that its sanctions can further weaken Moscow's position. But at the moment this road is unblocked, the Twenty-Seven will have to have decided, at least, who will be at the wheel.