Morocco plays the strategy of confusion in Ceuta

BarcelonaFour days after the irregular entry of more than 60,000 people into Ceuta, the motivation for the umpteenth migratory crisis between Spain and Morocco remains shrouded in mystery. The Moroccan regime maintained strict silence until Sunday night, by which time dozens of corpses had already been found on the area's beaches. The official version, conveyed in a note from the Ministry of the Interior, supports the same thesis as Madrid's, that of a disinformation campaign by migrant mafias. However, several facts cast doubt on the veracity of their narrative. The Moroccan government's statement assures that, according to the information gathered, the events in Ceuta "were not the result of conjunctural or spontaneous factors," but rather of several connected events, with "the pernicious exploitation of digital networks, the dissemination of false information, and the role of human trafficking networks" as the main ones. Specifically, it cites the manipulation of the Supreme Court ruling that prohibits hot returns to make young people with desires to emigrate believe that they could cross the Mediterranean Sea without any problem. 

The Moroccan government has estimated eleven bodies that its agents would have recovered in the waters of the area, to which must be added the 88 in the Ceuta morgue. Regarding the number of people who would have crossed the border, their estimate is around 40,000, a number significantly lower than that given by the Spanish authorities, which place them at 69,000. 

Thus, Morocco denies any complicity with the migratory wave, a position in line with the official version of Pedro Sánchez's government. Furthermore, it takes the opportunity to assert itself as a "reliable and responsible partner, committed to strengthening international cooperation and coordination in the fight against irregular migration." However, this narrative does not fit with the testimony of various journalists on the ground and of the migrants themselves, who affirm that Moroccan police officers did nothing to prevent the massive entry into Ceuta, but rather the opposite. According to Spanish intelligence service sources cited by the newspaper El País, the crisis did not respond to an act planned by Rabat, but once the Moroccan authorities realized the crowd heading towards the border, they opted to let them go. 

Silence from the Moroccan authorities

The confusion regarding the factors that triggered the border crisis stems, in part, from the long silence maintained by the Moroccan authorities and a large part of the political class. It is unclear whether the reason for this lack of explanation lies in the fact that the crisis had not actually been planned and state bodies took time to construct a consensus narrative about it, or if it responded to a strategy to create confusion in Spain and the European Union and to bring to the surface internal conflicts about how to address the situation and migratory policy in general.    Only a few small left-wing parties and media outlets, such as the Party for Progress and Socialism (PPS), denounced the use of the "migration carta" in relations with Spain, and the human cost it represents. In contrast, parties integrated into the system did not dare to make any public statement in this regard, probably out of fear of contradicting an as yet non-existent official version. This situation has occurred in other sensitive matters. For example, none of these parties have ever presented a proposal for autonomy for Western Sahara out of deference to the government, which has also not yet made its own official.

US influence?

A fact that is highly suspicious is that the border conflict has occurred only days after some politicians and think tanks from the United States surprisingly brought up the issue of the sovereignty of Ceuta and Melilla. For example, a report from the Budget Committee recently noted its support for the efforts of the United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to facilitate dialogue between Madrid and Rabat on the "future status" of the two autonomous cities, which it defines as "two cities administered by Spain in Moroccan territory". The president of this committee is the ultra-conservative Mario Díaz-Balart, of Cuban origin and very close to Rubio. 

Michael Rubin, a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank with ties to former president José María Aznar, has gone even further and defined Ceuta and Melilla as "occupied Moroccan territories". Rubin, who has even suggested that Rabat organize a Green March to occupy them, as it did in 1974 with Western Sahara, argues that Washington should bet on Morocco as an ally instead of an "unreliable" Spain. 

An article published in the digital newspaper Le360 on Friday has further fueled suspicions regarding the true causes of the crisis and Rabat's intentions. "The central question is no longer whether these cities [Ceuta and Melilla] will be reintegrated into their natural environment, Morocco, but how long it will take and how many human tragedies will have to be lamented before then," states the text, which occupied the newspaper's front page for several hours. The relevance of the article derives not only from the content of the message but also from the author: Le360 is not just an official media outlet, but it is commented in Rabat's political circles that it is owned by the country's intelligence services and, therefore, the voice through which the Moroccan "deep state" manifests itself.