Merz's CDU wrests away the Social Democrats' historic stronghold of Rhineland-Palatinate
The far right doubles its votes in this region, governed by the SPD since 1991
BerlinThe Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is poised to win the regional parliamentary elections in the southwestern German state of Rhineland-Palatinate, according to projections based on the vote count. Pending final results, conservative candidate Gordon Schneider is projected to win with 31% of the vote, defeating incumbent Social Democrat Alexander Schweitzer, who is expected to garner 25.9%. The CDU, the party of conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz, would wrest control of the state government from the Social Democrats (SPD), dealing a significant blow to the party after 35 years in power. The Social Democrats lose their red stronghold: they had governed since 1991.
Schweitzer, who aspired to remain in office, has been regional president since July 2024, succeeding the well-known Malu Dreyer (SPD), who resigned for health reasons.
"The CDU is back," said Schnieder after the conservative victory. The chairman of the CDU parliamentary group in the Bundestag, Jens Spahn, called the result in Rhineland-Palatinate "historic" and "truly fantastic." Spahn now hopes it will serve as a "boost" for the conservative party at the federal level.
For the Social Democrats, this defeat represents "a major setback," as acknowledged by SPD General Secretary Tim Klüssendorf, following the debacle two weeks ago in Baden-Württemberg. The SPD obtained, with 5.5% of the vote, its worst result to date in that federal state. After suffering another defeat, pressure is mounting on the party leadership.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) would double its votes compared to the 2021 regional elections and become the third most voted party in this region, with 19.5% of the vote, followed by the Greens, who would obtain 7.9%, pending the final results. "This is the best result we have ever achieved in a West German state," a satisfied AfD co-chair Tino Chrupalla emphasized. Of the 101 seats in the regional parliament, 39 would go to the CDU, 32 to the SPD, 24 to the AfD, and 10 to the Greens. The liberal FDP, the Free Voters (FW), and the left-wing party Die Linke would not be represented in the regional parliament, as they did not reach the 5% threshold required for entry. The CDU had been leading in the polls in Rhineland-Palatinate for more than three years, although the SPD had managed to narrow the gap in recent weeks, giving the Social Democrats hope of maintaining their lead in this state bordering France. In the 2021 regional elections in Rhineland-Palatinate, the SPD obtained 35.7% of the vote; the CDU, 27.7%; the Greens, 9.3%; and the far right, 8.3%. The liberal FDP and the Free Voters (FW) also won seats in the regional parliament, obtaining 5.5% and 5.4% of the vote, respectively. A cordon sanitaire has been established around the far right.
After the elections, only a coalition government between the CDU and the SPD will be possible. Schneider has rejected any alliance with the far right. "It would be the ruin of that state if we let the AfD into the government. This has never happened and it won't happen," said the winner of the night. Since 2016, Rhineland-Palatinate had been governed by a "traffic light" coalition, made up of Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens. Of the 16 states, the SPD governed seven and the CDU six before these elections, while the Bavarian CSU, the Greens, and the left-wing party Die Linke each held one regional governorship. Now the Social Democrats will control one less state.
Germany is experiencing a super election year in 2026 with regional elections in five federal states, at a time when the far right is on the rise throughout the country. Merz, chancellor since May 2025, governs federally in coalition with the Social Democrats.
Two weeks ago, elections were held in Baden-Württemberg, where the Greens narrowly defeated the conservatives, who finished half a percentage point behind the Greens. Regional elections will be held in September in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
