Ukraine's new letter to alter the course of the war: "The turning point is happening right now"

MoscowA window of opportunity for Ukraine. This is how various military analysts describe the situation of the conflict with Russia, after Kyiv has taken the lead in the domain of medium-range drones, those that are sent about 150 kilometers from the front line and are crucial for disrupting the enemy's logistics. The Ukrainian army has managed to slow down the Russian offensive on the southern front and is now threatening the roads that supply weapons, food, and fuel to the soldiers. If it is capable of isolating the Russian lines, it could even launch a counteroffensive, some experts point out. However, Moscow will react sooner or later.

“For a modern army, a loss of 50% or 60% of supplies would be critical in the long term,” indicates the observer.“The objective is to strangle Russian logistics, to prevent the Russian army from transporting goods to the battlefield,” he tells ARA Ivan Stupak, a former Ukrainian intelligence officer. “Everything is in danger for them,” he adds, and predicts that the number of unmanned vehicles launched by Kyiv will increase. “Very soon the enemy will find it very difficult to move,” points out Matviéiev. Officials from the Ukrainian Azov corps see it as feasible to block up to 75% of Russian logistics on the southern front, meaning some 150,000 soldiers could be left with practically no resources. “For a modern army, a loss of 50% or 60% of supplies would be critical in the long term,” indicates the observer.In a very optimistic projection for Kyiv's interests, experts believe this is the first step so that, once Russian soldiers are blocked, Ukrainian troops can advance on the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and even reach Crimea. In this way, they add, Donbas could be attacked from the west and south. "The turning point in the war is happening right now," concludes Matviyev.

From the North American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), they also believe that Ukraine's partners have a "rare and temporary" opportunity to help Volodymyr Zelensky "exploit favorable dynamics while he has the advantage." This superiority at intermediate distances, they insist, "is not permanent" and Russia "will very likely develop countermeasures to mitigate these advantages."

The former Ukrainian security services officer Stupak is more cautious. "It's a great strategy," he declares, and admits that it "seems" like a turning point, but that "everything could change." He recalls that many times Kyiv was convinced it had developed the definitive technological breakthrough until Moscow managed to counter it. "Right now we have a window of opportunity until November when Russia is exhausted and we approach a stalemate," he opines.

Russia gets stuck

The Russian offensive launched after winter has stalled. Analyst Clément Molin has compared figures from various groups monitoring advances on the front and has found that, despite some differences, they all agree that Kremlin troops are progressing very slowly. In the first five months of this year, Russia has conquered about 540 square kilometers, less than what was achieved in June 2025 alone. Between January and May of last year, the Russian army occupied more than 1,350 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. The sector where Kremlin soldiers are advancing the most is Donetsk, Putin's great obsession, whose generals have promised him total control of Donbas before the end of the year, an objective that does not seem realistic and which forces one to doubt the quality of the information the Russian president receives.

One of the keys to this stalemate on the front is that infiltration tactics "no longer work as well as before," as the Russian military channel Ribar acknowledges. This type of operation consists of sending soldiers alone or in pairs beyond enemy lines to take up positions in the so-called death zone while waiting for reinforcements. A method that had been fundamental to Russian conquests, but which drone supremacy has made almost impossible.

The ISW is confident that these maneuvers "will continue to degrade," but Stupak warns that infiltrations remain useful in urban environments, where Ukrainian pilots find it very difficult to detect and kill these soldiers.