Orbán's farewell revives the debate: should Ukraine join the EU?

BrusselsViktor Orbán did not attend the last European summit and, instead, Volodymyr Zelensky attended in person as a guest. A change of pieces symptomatic of what the far-right pro-Russian leader's farewell could mean for the future of the European Union, and, above all, its relationship with Ukraine.

The effects of the electoral defeat of Vladimir Putin's main ally in the EU have already been felt even before leaving government. A few days after the Hungarian elections, Budapest lifted the veto on the 90 billion euro mega-loan from the EU to Ukraine and the twentieth package of sanctions against Russia. But the approval of these two initiatives is only the beginning of the new relationship that European leaders want to start with Kyiv with the arrival of Péter Magyar, a more pro-European conservative who —at least for now— appears open to supporting Ukraine.

In this context, both community leaders and European heads of state and government want to take advantage of this to take a step forward in the Ukrainian country's accession to the community club, and at last week's European summit they advocated for starting negotiations between Kyiv and Brussels. A move that must be approved unanimously and which Orbán had vetoed until now.

Despite the good news that Magyar's victory represents for Ukraine's future in the EU, several diplomatic sources tell ARA that there is a rather moderate optimism in the European institutions. Although the intentions of the next Hungarian prime minister "seem good," they are not entirely convinced and agree that "it must be confirmed that he continues on the right path".

In any case, Magyar has already visited Brussels for now – even before forming a government, which is not usual–, and has shown great rapport with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the President of the European Council, António Costa. After visiting them, he has maintained the commitment to apply all necessary measures to return Hungary to the democratic standards of the European Union, although he tried to place the war in Ukraine more in the background.

Beyond Magyar, diplomatic sources from the embassies of the member states to the EU recall that Hungary was not the only black sheep of the European Union and that at least two more partners, such as Slovakia and the Czech Republic, had already joined it. Furthermore, in Brussels there is now a fear that Bulgaria will also join the group of pro-Russians and Eurosceptics, after the electoral victory of Rumen Radev. However, the same sources qualify that none of these countries, at least for now, have reached the level of hindering the functioning of the European Union of Orbán's Hungary.

The division between Germany and France

There is a broad consensus among member states on Ukraine's desire to join the European Union once the war is over. However, there is some division on the pace of accession. Germany, which is the most influential European partner in the bloc, is one of those pushing to accelerate the process and, for example, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has proposed a kind of semi-accession. That is, Kyiv and Brussels would sign an association agreement and Ukrainian representatives would have a seat in European institutions, such as the European Council or Parliament, but only as mere observers, without the right to vote.

However, this proposal does not have the support of many member states. No European leader has joined it and, as diplomatic sources point out, "it does not seem likely to bear fruit". In fact, the majority of heads of state and government are opting to lower expectations for a kind of express accession and agree that Ukraine cannot join the EU at the beginning of next year, as was initially suggested.

In this regard, several countries, such as France, are asking for Ukraine to go through all the procedures to join the European Union, like any other state that wishes to join the community club, and that no kind of exception be made for it, especially to avoid any comparative grievance with countries that have been in the bloc's waiting room for years. In fact, the same diplomatic sources point out that it is "unlikely" that Ukraine's accession would be accepted without approving that of other countries, especially Montenegro and Albania.

And, at the same time, the fact that Ukraine will probably not join the EU alone makes member states think twice about accelerating Ukraine's accession. Orbán's shadow, even though he has already lost power, hangs over Brussels and the European club fears that other countries will follow in the footsteps of the current acting Hungarian prime minister and end up becoming a Trojan horse. For this reason, several European leaders —and France and Germany agree on this— advocate for reforming the community club before accepting new members and also for withdrawing unanimity in votes in certain areas, such as foreign affairs, to prevent a new Orbán from being able to put the functioning of the European Union on the ropes.