European leaders distrust NATO and are already preparing for a Trump withdrawal

BrusselsDonald Trump has threatened NATO allies since returning to the White House. The United States president, who controls Financial Times has questioned whether they are "loyal" to their commitment to Article 5 and whether they will defend Europe against a possible Russian attack. "Europe's most important question is whether the United States is prepared to be as loyal as described in our [NATO] treaties," said the also former President of the European Council.

The vast majority of leaders have avoided being so harsh with Trump and NATO at the European summit this Thursday and Friday in Cyprus, but they have spoken in the same vein as Tusk in calling for the European Union to finally gain military autonomy and stop depending on the interests of the United States. "The EU must become a real alliance in defense, with real tools and power," advocated the Polish leader.

The first step towards military independence

The consensus among European leaders to move towards military independence from the United States is almost absolute and, to get closer to it, the European Union agrees in pointing out that one of the first steps is to "revive" –in the words of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen– Article 42.7 on collective defense of the Community treaties, which is the equivalent of Article 5 of NATO. "The mutual assistance clause is already in the treaties, but now we need to know how to activate it and use it. We are already finishing the definitive manual on how to activate it," announced the President of the European Council, António Costa, at the press conference of the leaders' summit.

In this way, as the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, reported this Thursday, member states will have to report what defense support they can provide to the rest of the partners and will also know exactly what military aid they can count on in the event of being victims of an attack and activating Article 42.7 of the EU treaties. Von der Leyen has compared it to the EU's common assistance in civil resources, which has been functioning for twenty years and indicates that, for example, in the event of a large fire, the affected member state must be helped automatically.

Optimism with Ukraine

The departure of Viktor Orbán, who lost the elections after 16 consecutive years in power, has been a breath of fresh air for the European Union, especially with initiatives concerning Ukraine. Budapest has already lifted its veto on the approval of Brussels' €90 billion macro-loan to Kyiv and the approval of the twentieth sanctions package against Russia. And now, both Von der Leyen and Costa have indicated that the next step is to open negotiation files for Ukraine's accession to the European bloc and to accelerate its entry into the community club.

However, there is a certain division among member states regarding the pace of accession. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz advocated this Friday for an express process and for granting Ukraine a kind of "pre-accession" to the European Union. That is, that it have a seat at meetings of European leaders, at the European Commission, or even representation in the European Parliament, albeit without the right to vote.

This haste, however, does not please other European partners. Countries like France or Poland, which receive large subsidies for their primary sector and fear that Ukraine will take part of the pie, tend to be in this bloc, and they call for proceeding step by step, as with the rest of the candidate countries to join the EU. One of those who was clearest at this Friday's summit was the Prime Minister of Croatia, Andrej Plenkovic. "I am honest because I know all that Ukrainians are suffering and we cannot give them false expectations. [...] Accession will not happen in January 2027," warned the Croatian leader.