Lebanon and Israel speak for the first time in 34 years: the keys to a negotiation under the bombs

BarcelonaLebanon and Israel have been negotiating since Wednesday, in the first direct talks in 34 years. Lebanon has been drawn into the war by the attack on Iran, and this front threatens the fragile ceasefire agreed between Washington and Tehran, which expires on Tuesday. Let's review the keys to the situation, who the actors are, and why these talks are not intended to end the violence. It is not clear if the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Lebanese President, Joseph Aoun, will speak by phone today, after their advisors met in Washington on Wednesday.

Who is fighting and why

The war is not waged between two states, Israel and Lebanon, but between Israel and Hezbollah, a Shiite movement established in the country, linked from a military and ideological point of view to the Iranian regime. Israel intensified air strikes in Lebanon after Hezbollah, the Shiite militia allied with Iran, launched missiles against Israeli territory on March 2, in retaliation for the attack by the United States and Israel against Iran and the assassination of its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Since then, it has expanded a ground offensive in southern Lebanon and has ordered the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of civilians and has begun to destroy entire villages so that people cannot return. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, Israeli bombings have caused more than 2,000 deaths, including hundreds of children and women. Hezbollah's missiles have mainly hit towns in northern Israel, but have also reached cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv. Israel puts the number of dead since March 2 at two civilians and thirteen soldiers.

The current conflict follows the ceasefire of 2024, when after the war between Israel and Hezbollah following the genocide of Gaza, the US pushed for an agreement to disarm the Shiite militia. The Lebanese government has tried to monopolize weapons since then, but the weakness of the Lebanese state has prevented it. Hezbollah refuses to disarm and argues that its arsenal is an element of national defense against Israel. An armed clash between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah could provoke a civil war.

How negotiations were reached

A week after the start of the current conflict, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun showed himself willing to initiate direct negotiations with Israel to stop the fighting, and even to open the door to a normalization of relations. The two countries had not maintained diplomatic relations nor had they had high-level public meetings for 34 years. Israel rejected the offer, but two days after the ceasefire between the United States and Iran was signed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the start of negotiations with Lebanon. A ceasefire in Lebanon was one of the conditions that the Tehran regime had set to continue the diplomatic process.

What do the parties want

Lebanon argues that the starting point must be a ceasefire and the setting of a timetable for bilateral negotiations, while Israel dismisses addressing a truce and wants to prioritize the disarmament of Hezbollah and the establishment of peaceful relations. Netanyahu's government has not clarified whether it will reduce ground operations or withdraw from positions in Lebanon in case of diplomatic progress. Israel maintains bombings on Lebanese populations with the aim of creating a "security zone" north of its border, and has continued bombing what it considers Hezbollah positions in the Bekaa Valley, where it believes the militia protects its arsenals, but attacks on Beirut have stopped. Israel wants the Lebanese government to expel ministers linked to Hezbollah. The disarmament of the group is an impossible challenge for a weakened state, facing a heavily armed militia that retains significant roots in a significant part of the Shiite community.

Where do we come from?

Israel and Lebanon do not maintain formal diplomatic relations and have been technically at war since the creation of the State of Israel in 1948. Israel has carried out multiple incursions into Lebanon, including an occupation of the south between 1982 and 2000, until it had to withdraw in the face of Hezbollah's armed resistance. In 2022, with US mediation, the two countries agreed to the delimitation of their maritime border.