Khamenei's death revives Putin's worst fears: How does the war in Iran affect the Kremlin?

Moscow"I don't even want to discuss this possibility," Vladimir Putin stated last June when a journalist asked him how he would react if Israel or the United States were to assassinate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Once the possibility became a reality, the Russian leader merely sent a telegram of condolence to the president of Iran, criticizing what he considers a "cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law." He has repeated this message in the following days. The man who invaded Ukraine without warning four years ago and who bombs its cities daily is not so much troubled by the image he projects to the world, incapable of helping an ally, as by the ghosts this death evokes, inevitably linked to the trauma of the execution of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. The assassination of Gaddafi in 2011 horrified and obsessed Putin, who began to fear a similar fate. The Kremlin leader perceived it as a betrayal by the United States and Europe, and this was one of the causes of the break with the West. However, fifteen years later, Russia is not in a position to raise its voice forcefully against the White House. The initial telegram, much shorter and more neutral than a televised statement, avoided pointing fingers at those responsible for Khamenei's death and made it clear that Moscow cannot and does not want to antagonize an omnipotent Donald Trump, who has broken Putin's isolation and is mediating to resolve the war in Ukraine. Since then, Putin has barely spoken about events in the Middle East.

The Russian president has already lost two allies in two months to the Americans, following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela in January. As on that occasion, he has ceded the public display of indignation to the Foreign Ministry, while he remains silent and uncomfortable in a situation that highlights the Kremlin's current weaknesses. Besides Venezuela, Russia could no longer do anything to save Bashar al-Assad in Syria, let Armenia succumb to Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (for which Trump ultimately took credit as a peacemaker), and knows it will be unable to influence Cuba's fate.

In any case, Russian experts do not believe these episodes will affect Moscow's reputation outside the Western sphere. However, they do present risks regarding Russia's regional influence. Should the conflict in Iran lead to the rise of a government that establishes better relations with the West, the Kremlin could lose its ability to mediate between the countries of the region, since its strength lay precisely in being Tehran's main European ally.

Bad news for Ukraine

In any case, despite Russia and Iran signing a strategic partnership treaty in early 2025, their ties are limited, and especially regarding military cooperation, it is highly unlikely that the crisis will affect the Russian military in Ukraine. During the first years of the invasion, Moscow was heavily reliant on Iranian Shahed drones, but this dependence is now a thing of the past since the Kremlin began manufacturing its own improved Shahed drones. Russia has continued to supply Iran with weapons it doesn't need against Kyiv, but which are useless for defending against attacks from the United States and Israel, and Tehran has primarily used them to suppress citizen protests.

While Volodymyr Zelensky has been quick to applaud the bombing of Iran and deem it "just" to give the population the opportunity to "get rid of a terrorist regime," this escalation could be detrimental to Ukraine. To begin with, the US military is using Patriot anti-aircraft missiles in the Middle East, which are intended to protect Kyiv and other cities, and if hostilities continue, Ukrainian supplies could be disrupted. Furthermore, the emergence of a new international flashpoint is diverting attention from the war in Eastern Europe and putting negotiations on hold. Russian propagandists are suggesting that there is "no point" in discussing anything with Trump if, in the end, the talks are just a smokescreen to ultimately attack the other party. Moreover, it is also very likely that the pressure campaign against Russian oil will be less effective. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the instability in the region, it is expected that tanker insurance prices will skyrocket, the cost of transporting crude oil will rise, and Russian producers, who are under sanctions and struggling, will benefit.

Finally, every time Trump flouts international law and demonstrates that the old world order founded by the West no longer exists, he reinforces the arguments that Russia has been making for years. And not only that, but despite Putin's grandstanding accusing Washington and Tel Aviv of not respecting the rules, his aggression legitimizes Russian aggression against Ukraine. The Kremlin even boasts of being "an island of stability" amidst the "general chaos," as its spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has said, making it clear that in a turbulent world, Kyiv is destined to lose and Moscow feels it must win.