Countdown to new Trump threat over Hormuz, expiring at 4 PM

LondonThe crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has entered a new phase of even greater unpredictability after Donald Trump assured that this Monday at four in the afternoon, it will be the US Navy that will block the Strait of Hormuz to ships linked to Iran. The decision comes hours after the collapse of negotiations in Islamabad and opens the door to a military escalation that, for the moment, no one seems capable of calibrating with precision.

According to US administration sources cited by The Washington Post

these facilities in the Gulf countries, vital for their populationthese facilities in the Gulf countries, vital for their population.

The blockade —which in theory will affect any ship entering or leaving Iranian ports— places one of the planet's energy arteries in a risk territory and, in practice, totally closed. Nearly a fifth of the world's oil passes through Hormuz, and markets have not been slow to react this Monday: crude oil has risen sharply after a week of relative calm thanks to a ceasefire that now seems like a paper tiger. Brent crude is already trading above $103 a barrel.

The uncertainty is not just economic. It is, above all, strategic. Intercepting ships from third countries —Chinese, Indian, or Pakistani— could turn a pressure operation into a conflict of broader dimensions, according to various analysts. In strict terms of international law, boarding a vessel can be interpreted as an act of war. Iran, in turn, assures that any vessel in Hormuz waters will effectively constitute a breach of the ceasefire and will be treated accordingly. Tehran denounces the blockade as an act of "piracy." And it has warned that security in the Persian Gulf will be "for everyone or for no one." The warning, in an already extremely tense region, does not seem rhetorical.

European distance

Europe, for its part, is currently keeping its distance. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has described the situation as "deeply damaging" this Monday, and has reiterated that the United Kingdom will not join the American operation: "We will not be dragged into a war that is not in our national interest," he stated on BBC Radio Live 5 upon his return from a brief tour of Gulf countries. London is backing a multinational mission to ensure freedom of navigation through the strait, an initiative it is jointly promoting with Emmanuel Macron's France. The message is clear: de-escalate or, at least, do not contribute to escalation. For now, however, it is more a wish than a reality.

And amidst all this, the Trump factor adds an additional layer of uncertainty. A few hours before confirming the blockade, the president posted an AI-generated image on Truth Social depicting him in a miraculous healing scene, surrounded by patriotic symbolism and almost angelic figures. A deific representation sufficiently illustrative of his role in world affairs.

In parallel, the first data points to an even greater slowdown in maritime traffic and an alteration of routes. Some vessels avoid clearly identifying origin or destination, while others directly reconsider the route. The result is an increase in logistics and insurance costs that, as often happens, ends up being passed on to the final price of energy.

The problem is not just oil. The passage through Hormuz is also vital for liquefied gas, especially from Qatar, and for the exports of several Gulf countries. At the moment, a good part of this flow is conditioned or directly reduced or stopped. According to industry estimates, the war has already cut global crude flow by about eight million barrels a day, a figure significant enough to strain the markets.

The case of Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) illustrates the situation well: shipments planned for China have been halved in a month, according to sources from the company itself. Other regional players have even less room to maneuver. Kuwait and Iraq are finding difficulties in exporting their production, while the United Arab Emirates can only partially divert the flow through alternative routes. Qatar, key in the global gas market, also sees its exit capabilities limited.

This compression of transit coexists with a market paradox: while the reference price of oil exceeds 100 dollars per barrel, physical crude in Asia is already trading well above, around 150 dollars, reflecting the real cost —and the risk— of getting it to the committed destinations. It is the difference between a market that speculates and logistics that gets stuck, according to sources from the City of London.

This balance reflects a broader reality: no one wants to bear the cost of a complete closure of Hormuz, but neither does anyone seem capable of guaranteeing its opening. The result is an intermediate, unstable situation in which transit does not stop entirely, although it is reduced to a minimum, and ceases to be reliable. Amidst credible threats, symbolic gestures, and global interests at play, Hormuz once again remains at the point where geopolitics ceases to be theory and transforms into very high risk. And any error or accident can reignite the fuse of missiles.