All against Orbán: the Hungarian leader, for the first time on the ropes

Special correspondent to BudapestBudapest awoke on Saturday with many fewer election posters on the city's lampposts. Intoxicated by euphoria (and beer), many young Hungarians took down as many propaganda boards as they could. All from Fidesz, the party of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Heroes' Square in the Hungarian capital and its surroundings were filled on Friday with Hungarians eager for political change in the country. On the enormous esplanade, and along the 700 meters of tree-lined avenue leading to it, cries against Orbán were repeated over and over, who this Sunday is risking it all in an election considered the most decisive since the fall of communism.

It is in this same square where Orbán took his first steps in politics, 37 years ago, when democracy was just beginning to emerge in Hungary. "If we believe in our strength, we will be able to defeat the communist dictatorship; if we are determined enough, we can force the ruling party to submit to free elections," said a young Orbán with a beard and long hair on June 16, 1989. On Friday, more than 120,000 people returned the message with shouts in favor of "regime change" at a macro-event that combined musical performances with enthusiastic speeches for seven hours.

Viktor Orbán has governed Hungary since 2010, earning him the title of the longest-serving European leader. But, for the first time in a decade and a half, it seems viable that he could lose an election and not be able to retain the position of prime minister, which he has held uninterruptedly for the last 16 years. For the first time, he faces an opponent who could unseat him: Péter Magyar, a Fidesz renegade, has become the only opposition candidate with a real chance of defeating him.

Polls give him a very wide lead, of more than ten points. His followers are torn between hope and caution, aware that the Fidesz government has eliminated much of the mechanisms that ensure the proper functioning of a democratic system.

Orbán has transformed Hungary into what he himself has dubbed an "illiberal democracy", but many analysts and independent organizations consider it an autocracy, that is, a system in which all powers fall to a single person and where all control mechanisms have been eliminated. Freedom House downgraded Hungary in 2020 from a "semi-consolidated democracy" to a "hybrid regime", while the V-Dem Institute has considered it an "electoral autocracy" since 2018.

Zsuzsanna Végh, an associate researcher at the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), explains it this way to ARA: "The core of the system, the operational logic, is autocratic. But it has the electoral component to maintain the facade that it is a democracy. There are elections, of course, but they are not fair, because not all parties compete on the same terms", she adds.

have made great fortunes thanks to public concessionsAfter winning the 2010 elections with a two-thirds majority —the last ones considered fair—, Fidesz modified the Constitution "without any coordination with the other parties". "The current Constitution is a fundamental law written by a single party", emphasized Végh, who adds that they have modified it more than ten times.

Oligarchs thanks to EU funds

Already in the early years, Fidesz put an end to judicial independence, turned public media into a powerful propaganda machine, and began the campaign to pressure independent media —Hungary has gone from 23rd place in Reporters Without Borders' press freedom ranking to 68th — and NGOs, especially those focused on the fight against corruption.

During these 16 years, Orbán has created a profoundly corrupt system through public funding (mainly from funds from the European Union) of companies created by friends and family that in a few years have made large fortunes thanks to public concessions.

That is why these elections are not only important for Hungarians. In Brussels and Moscow

Now or never

The conservative Péter Magyar has managed to rally almost all critics of the Fidesz government under the banner of his party, Tisza —an abbreviation of Respect and Freedom and, at the same time, the name of a Hungarian river—, capitalizing on anger and focusing his campaign on the promise to dismantle the "mafia state". The vast majority of opposition parties have withdrawn from the electoral race, which in these elections sets aside the traditional right-left axis and becomes an "everyone against Orbán". "This is like a kind of revolution," says Bori, 20, from Heroes' Square.

The feeling among Orbán's critics is one of urgency and a last chance. "If we don't succeed this time, it will be much more difficult next time. It's our best chance. Otherwise, we might be in the same situation for the next fifty years," said Levente, one of the many young attendees at the mega-concert. "People are really desperate and are looking for something that will bring about change."

Beside him, a friend of his observes me with some insight: "You're not Russian, are you?" Apart from the shouts against Fidesz, the other most repeated slogan is "Russians, go home!". And, among the speeches, many references have been made to the ties of Orbán's government with the Kremlin. During the last week of the campaign, several journalistic investigations have exposed the subservient relationship of the Fidesz executive with Moscow, through the publication of conversations between the Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Péter Szijjártó, and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov.

Therefore, these elections are not only important for Hungarians. In Brussels and Moscow there is also great anticipation. Orbán has become, especially in the last four years, the biggest thorn in the side of the European Union, with the continuous blocking of a large part of community initiatives, especially those that refer to helping Ukraine and punishing Russia. Therefore, if Orbán loses, Vladimir Putin will lose his great asset in the European Union. He has also put spokes in the wheels regarding sanctions against Israel. The Hungarian prime minister has created a school of thought and leaders like Slovakia's Robert Fico and Czech Andrej Babis, who could now take on his role.

In Washington they are also paying attention to the electoral results in this small European country. On Tuesday, precisely the day Donald Trump had the whole world alarmed by his ultimatum against Iran –accompanied by threats that made one think of a nuclear catastrophe, his vice president–, J.D. Vance, was in Budapest to support Orbán; a recognition of the work done by the pioneer of this ultraconservative movement that is now spreading throughout the world.

Viktor Orbán has manipulated the system from within to put everything in his favor. Even so, this Sunday he may see that it has not been enough. The fear among a large part of those who expect change is that he will opt for more drastic and even less democratic tactics. One of the young people who filled Heroes' Square on Friday summarized it like this: "We can't be sure until the official results come out on Monday. But we have to do everything in our power to achieve it."