All against Orbán: the Hungarian leader, for the first time on the ropes

Special correspondent to BudapestBudapest woke up on Saturday with many fewer election posters on the city's lampposts. Intoxicated by euphoria (and beer), many young Hungarians took down as many propaganda panels as they could. All from Fidesz, the party of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Heroes' Square in the Hungarian capital and its surroundings were filled on Friday with Hungarians eager for political change in the country. On the enormous esplanade, and along the 700-meter tree-lined avenue leading to it, shouts against Orbán were repeated over and over, who this Sunday is risking everything in an election considered the most decisive since the fall of communism.

It is in this same square where Orbán took his first steps in politics, 37 years ago, when democracy was just beginning to emerge in Hungary. "If we believe in our strength, we will be able to defeat the communist dictatorship; if we are determined enough, we can force the ruling party to submit to free elections," said a young Orbán with a beard and long hair on June 16, 1989. On Friday, more than 120,000 people returned the message with shouts in favor of "regime change" at a macro-event that combined musical performances with enthusiastic speeches for seven hours.

Viktor Orbán has governed Hungary since 2010, earning him the title of the longest-serving European leader. But, for the first time in a decade and a half, it seems possible that he could lose an election and not be able to retain the position of prime minister, which he has held uninterruptedly for the last 16 years. For the first time, he faces an opponent who could unseat him: Péter Magyar, a Fidesz renegade, has become the only opposition figure with real chances of defeating him.

Polls give him a very wide lead, of more than ten points. His supporters are torn between hope and caution, aware that the Fidesz government has eliminated a large part of the mechanisms that ensure the proper functioning of a democratic system.

Orbán has transformed Hungary into what he himself has dubbed an "illiberal democracy", but many analysts and independent organizations consider it an autocracy, meaning a system in which all powers fall to a single person and where all control mechanisms have been eliminated. Freedom House downgraded Hungary in 2020 from a "semicensolidated democracy" to a "hybrid regime", while the V-Dem Institute has considered it an "electoral autocracy" since 2018.

Zsuzsanna Végh, an associate researcher at the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), explains it to ARA like this: "The core of the system, the operational logic, is autocratic. But it has the electoral component to maintain the facade that it is a democracy. There are elections, of course, but they are not fair, because not all parties compete under the same conditions", she adds.

The Hungarian electoral system is not proportional: it benefits the largest party, in this case Fidesz, which has controlled two-thirds of Parliament for sixteen years. Voters must vote with two ballots: one from a national list, from which 93 deputies emerge, and another through which they elect local representatives, which elects the remaining 106. "It is an electoral system that was implemented in 2013 – driven by Fidesz – and has been modified almost in every election", explains Végh. The system benefits Fidesz because it gives more weight to rural and small districts than to large cities, where the opposition has more support. "In this way, it has been possible to guarantee supermajorities in Parliament and govern by excluding everyone else: parties and civil society", she states.

After winning the 2010 elections with a two-thirds majority —the last ones considered fair—, Fidesz modified the Constitution "without any coordination with the other parties". "The current Constitution is a fundamental law written by a single party", stressed Végh, who adds that they have modified it more than ten times.

Oligarchs thanks to EU funds

Already in the early years, Fidesz ended judicial independence, turned public media into a powerful propaganda machine and began the campaign to pressure independent media —Hungary has gone from 23rd place in Reporters Without Borders' press freedom ranking to 68th — and NGOs, especially those focused on the fight against corruption.

During these 16 years, Orbán has created a profoundly corrupt system through public funding (mainly from funds from the European Union) of companies created by friends and family that in a few years have made huge fortunes thanks to public contracts.

"Fidesz, you dirty people!", chant, tirelessly, the attendees at the macro-concert in Budapest. Among those who take the stage are a soldier and a police chief who during the campaign have publicly denounced the systematic corruption of Orbán's government. The loudest ovations are heard every time someone climbs a lamppost to take down the ruling party's election posters. Later, through the streets of the city center, some young people carry plastic [posters] under their arms, broken and trampled, full of stickers and graffiti with insults and crude drawings.

Now or never

J.D. Vance, was in Budapest to support OrbánThe feeling among Orbán's critics is one of urgency and a last chance. "If we don't succeed this time, it will be much harder next time. This is our best chance. If not, perhaps we will be in the same situation for the next fifty years – said Levente, one of the many young attendees at the mega-concert. People are really desperate and looking for something to bring about change".

Beside him, a friend of his observes me with some insight: "You're not Russian, are you?". Apart from the shouts against Fidesz, the other most repeated slogan is "Russians, leave!". And, among the speeches, many references have been made to the ties of Orbán's government with the Kremlin. During the last week of the campaign, several journalistic investigations have revealed the subservient relationship of the Fidesz executive with Moscow, through the publication of conversations between the Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Péter Szijjártó, and his Russian counterpart, Serguei Lavrov.

Therefore, these elections are not only important for Hungarians. In Brussels and in Moscow there is also great expectation. Orbán has become, especially in the last four years, the biggest thorn in the side of the European Union, with the continuous blocking of a large part of community initiatives, especially those related to helping Ukraine and punishing Russia. Therefore, if Orbán loses, Vladimir Putin will lose his great asset in the European Union. He has also put obstacles in the way regarding sanctions against Israel. The Hungarian prime minister has created a school of thought and leaders like Slovakia's Robert Fico and Czech Andrej Babis, who could now take on his role.

In Washington, they are also paying attention to the electoral results in this small European country. On Tuesday, precisely the day Donald Trump had the whole world alarmed by his ultimatum against Iran –accompanied by threats that suggested a nuclear catastrophe, his vice president–, J.D. Vance, was in Budapest to support Orbán; a recognition of the work done by the pioneer of this ultra-conservative movement that is now spreading throughout the world.

Viktor Orbán has manipulated the system from within to put everything in his favor. Even so, this Sunday he may see that it has not been enough. The fear among a large part of those who expect change is that he will opt for more drastic and even less democratic tactics. One of the young people who filled Heroes' Square on Friday summarized it thus: "We cannot be sure until the official results come out on Monday. But we have to do everything in our power to achieve it."