Who is the man who could dethrone Viktor Orbán after 16 years of controlling Hungary?

BarcelonaPéter Magyar burst onto the Hungarian political scene two years ago. He was an unknown, but in a very short time he rose up in a kind of messianic figureHe was the politician on whom all the hopes of those who dream of a Hungary without Viktor Orbán in power were pinned. Just two months after his party, Tisza, was registered as a political organization, it finished ahead of Fidesz, the prime minister's party, in the European elections. But back then, the big event, the Hungarian parliamentary elections, still seemed too far off, and there was an inevitable wariness of the newcomer among citizens and analysts. Now, less than a month before the elections, Péter Magyar has consolidated his position as a competitor on par with Viktor Orbán, who for the first time since 2010 faces a real possibility of losing the elections.

For the past six months, Tisza (an abbreviation of Party of Respect and Freedom in Hungarian) has consistently remained within ten points of Orbán, according to the Poll of Polls aggregate. Political, which calculates the average of the various polls in the country. Until this last month, in which the gap has narrowed by one point. The final result will be known on April 12. "This is the most open election race we have had since Fidesz returned to power in 2010, there is no doubt about that," Zsuzsanna Végh, associate researcher at the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Tibor Dessewffy, professor at Eötvös Loránd University in Budapest, agrees: "Orbán has never had such a strong rival."

However, both experts are cautious about the polls, firstly because there are still three weeks until the elections and a large number of undecided voters. But above all because of the Hungarian electoral system, which is not proportional: it benefits the largest party, in this case Fidesz, which has controlled two-thirds of Parliament for sixteen years. Voters must cast two ballots: one for a national list, which elects 93 members of parliament, and another for local representatives, which elects the remaining 106. Both analysts point out that, while Péter Magyar has won over urban voters, Fidesz continues to dominate in rural areas. "It's an electoral system that was implemented in 2013—driven by Fidesz—and has been modified in almost every election. It serves to favor the ruling party. We've also seen quite a bit of electoral manipulation (gerrymandering"Which, again, favors the ruling party," Végh warns. He points out that Tisza would need at least a ten-point lead to secure a simple majority in Parliament. The close competition between Magyar and Orbán was demonstrated last Sunday, Hungary's national day, when both sides easily outperformed each other. Calculations showed that Tisza's leader had surpassed the prime minister in terms of voter turnout.

These are elections in which the ideological axis has disappeared. Péter Magyar is a right-wing, conservative nationalist politician—in the European Parliament, Tisza is part of the European People's Party. In this respect, he is not very different from Orbán. But Dessewffy emphasizes that Magyar "has managed to present himself as a realistic alternative" and has attracted a large portion of Hungarians who used to vote for the traditional center-left opposition parties, who are "desperate" and "disappointed" by the failures of the last elections. "Tisza's base is extremely heterogeneous: Greens, left-wing voters, liberals, conservatives. Everyone is thinking: anyone but Orbán."

"Many of his supporters back him because they want regime change, even though they are not ideologically aligned," agrees Végh, who adds that his conservative ideology has also attracted traditional Fidesz voters. "I think what we'll see in April is a completely right-wing parliament," the analyst summarizes. "But what Péter Magyar is proposing is that he wants to unite the nation and that he doesn't take the left-right divide into account, and that seems to have convinced many people," he explains. According to polls, Péter Magyar seems to have secured support in the big cities and among young people: a recent survey found that two-thirds of those under thirty support Tisza, while only 8% of this age group is pro-Fidesz.

Against corruption and in favor of the EU

Magyar's discourse has focused, from the beginning, on the fight against corruption. which has spread to every corner of the country since Fidesz came to power with an absolute majority, since Orbán was re-elected in 2010 – after a first term between 1998 and 2002. Végh points out that the politician has been adept at linking institutional corruption to the deterioration of public services, such as education and healthcare. Another key element of his discourse is Europeanism. Faced with Orbán's constant clashes with Brussels, he argues that Hungary must reconnect with its Western allies and distance itself from Russia. "Our homeland is part of the European community, NATO, and the West," he emphasized at the large rally on Sunday. The analyst highlights that the strongest argument for maintaining good relations with the EU is that Hungary needs to recover European funds to improve its poor economic situation. Nevertheless, Magyar is a staunch nationalist and underscores the need to guarantee Hungary's sovereignty and interests in relation to Brussels. Regarding Ukraine, Tisza advocates lifting Hungary's veto on economic aid to Kyiv, but has ruled out sending weapons or troops. In this way, he is trying to strike a balance between restoring good relations with the EU and countering accusations from Orbán, who labels him a puppet of Brussels.

"These elections are about regime change," summarizes Végh, who emphasizes the enormous effort Péter Magyar has made to connect with people across the country. "This has been his consistent strategy; he's been campaigning for two years, not just sending top-down messages, but being present," he says. "And people now have hope that change is possible," he concludes.