The Generalitat reduces growth by one tenth for this year, to 2.5%.

BarcelonaThe Catalan government forecasts that the Catalan economy will grow by 2.5% this year, one-tenth less than the estimate made last spring due to the effects of the trade war, and by 2.1% next year, one-tenth more, as the impact of the tariff dispute is expected to diminish. These estimates are included in the 2025-2026 macroeconomic scenario of the Ministry of Economy, which "confirms the gradual normalization of the Catalan economy toward rates close to 2%, after a few years of unusually strong growth." According to the document, some 110,000 jobs will be created during the years 2025 and 2026, while the unemployment rate will stabilize at around 8% (8.4% in 2025 and 8.2% in 2026).

The Catalan government's roadmap highlights that gross domestic product (GDP) will continue to grow "at a significant pace and above the eurozone average, which in 2025 would stand at 1.2% according to the OECD outlook." As a result of the latest estimates, the Catalan economy will have accumulated more than four years with a positive growth differential compared to the eurozone as a whole.

The new forecasts include a complex scenario for global trade, a sluggish eurozone, and increased imports, "which would have a negative impact in 2025." This effect is expected to attenuate in 2026, the document states. Therefore, this year's expected growth has moderated by one-tenth compared to last spring's scenario, while that for 2026 has been revised upwards by one-tenth.

Investment Boost

The main driver of the Catalan economy will continue to be domestic demand. Within this category, private consumption stands out, remaining strong "thanks to the good performance of the labor market, disposable income, and population growth." However, in any case, "investment will be the component of domestic demand that will experience the most significant growth" and, therefore, will gain prominence as a driver of growth. Contributing factors include improved financing conditions, the low level of corporate debt, and the support of the Next Generation funds.

The government document warns that risks persist that could slow the expected pace of growth, such as the tariff war, economic weakness in the eurozone, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, tightening financial conditions, and political and budgetary instability in neighboring countries such as France.

The year 2025 will be strongly marked by the momentum of domestic demand. Private and public consumption are moderating their growth despite continuing to advance at a significant pace (3.3% and 2.5%, respectively), while investment will achieve the largest increase (5.1%). Exports are expected to rise by 2.1% and imports by 4.2%, meaning the contribution of external demand would be negative (-0.5 points).

In 2026, the growth pattern will be more balanced, according to the Ministry of Economy. Domestic demand will remain strong but with more moderate increases in all its components. Regarding external demand, growth in exports (2.2%) and imports (3.3%) will be greater.