The AI giants glance at Elon Musk's stock market crash

BarcelonaThe euphoria that followed the stock market debut of SpaceX, Elon Musk's aerospace and artificial intelligence giant, has completely deflated. The company, which staged the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history on June 12, has seen its value plummet in recent weeks. The IPO price, it should be recalled, was set at $135 per share, and within just a few days, it soared to over $200. However, by Friday, the tech company was trading around $115, leaving all its investors in the red.

The debut price, it should be recalled, was set at $135 per share and within just a few days, it soared to over $200. However, by Friday, the tech company was trading around $115, leaving all its investors in the red.

Thus, the stock, already listed on the Nasdaq technology index, has confirmed market alerts at the time of its public debut: investor appetite for Musk's technological promises, combined with the inherent speculation in these types of operations, has injected enormous volatility into the company.

In the face of this downturn, the capital market is debating the implications for the technology market in the medium term. It is worth noting that part of the recent decline in the stock is closely linked to SpaceX's aerospace activities, which suffered a failure in a rocket launch last week, triggering a strong outflow of capital and even a flurry of bets against the company.

As reported by the American network CNBC last Tuesday, short-sellers – speculative investors who profit when a company's value falls – now occupy nearly a third of the tech company's float. Far from debating market threats, the South African magnate became even more defiant: "The odds of survival for firms with short positions in SpaceX are very low," he wrote in a post on his social media.

However, some prominent voices in the investment world have warned that SpaceX's problem is not solely with Musk's company. Peter Schiff, chief economist at wealth management firm Euro Pacific Asset Management, warned on his social media that the tech stock's collapse is "a harbinger of what's to come for other overvalued stocks and cryptoassets."

This is not, however, the consensus of the entire market: eToro's international securities analyst Jean-Paul van Oudheusden, consulted by this medium, considers a bearish movement of these characteristics "usual" after an "IPO of great impact". "Once the initial imbalance with demand is resolved, the stock seeks a short-term floor," explains the expert.

The next steps the company takes, however, will be key to sustaining itself in the market. According to Adrián Hostaled, analyst at the financial firm XTB, SpaceX's first full results, expected for August, will mark investor sentiment. "It would be a disappointment if the figures approach those at launch," admits the economist. It should be remembered that, upon registering the initial public offering, Musk revealed losses of 4.2 billion dollars in the first quarter of the year.

However, both Hostaled and Van Oudheusden point to short-term revenue guidance as the factor to consider most. Especially regarding the satellite internet business, Starlink, the most profitable for now. "Is there a downward or upward trend in Starlink? That's what we need to know," states the XTB analyst.

Suspicions about AI

Although Musk's business is primarily space-related, the magnate linked it to the world of artificial intelligence with the integration into SpaceX of xAI, the company that drives his initiatives in this technology, such as Grok, the chatbot of the X social network. So much so that, when it undertook its stock market launch, the market interpreted it as the first in a race of leaps into the public market that also involved OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, and Anthropic, the company behind Claude.

It should be remembered that both have projected their Wall Street assaults for next year, between late 2026 and early 2027. The good reception of SpaceX's stock in the first few days on the market was read as splendid news for the aspirations of Sam Altman and Dario Amodei. Now, the stumble throws a bucket of cold water on it.

For Hostaled, investors' appetite for artificial intelligence is far from having vanished, even with SpaceX in free fall. "The investor is still there. I don't think any launch will be canceled; nor even postponed," he explains.

"The recent correction could affect investor sentiment in other tech launches," warns Van Oudheusden; although he insists that "liquidity is still there" and that confidence in AI models is more relevant than the performance of another company. Nevertheless, the bad mood for Musk has indeed instilled fear in capital when undertaking excessively ambitious stock market launches. "The doubt – Hostaled concludes – is at what price they can afford to go out, because the business they share with SpaceX is the most difficult to value."