Repsol becomes the "gold mine" of the Ibex thanks to producing and refining its own oil

BarcelonaThe war in the Middle East has once again shaken the foundations of the global economy: the soaring price of oil has now comfortably settled at $100 per barrel of Brent crude – the benchmark in Europe. This represents an increase of over 35% since the start of the war in Iran on February 28. Faced with this situation, not all players on the Madrid stock exchange view the charts with the same concern. While sectors such as tourism and intensive industry are suffering from increased costs, Repsol has become the Ibex 35's weakest link.

The specter of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz – through which 20% of the world's oil passes – keeps investors on high alert. A prolonged closure of this vital artery would send crude oil prices soaring into uncharted territory. In this scenario, the company led by Josu Jon Imaz has positioned itself as one of the best European oil companies. Known for its agility and recent strategic agreements, such as the return to operations in Venezuela, which allows it to collect on old debt in the form of crude oil and secure gas supplies.

Why Repsol?

The oil and gas group's share price has risen by more than 50% so far this year, and analysts' valuations are increasingly bullish. In fact, the British firm Barclays—the giant of British investment banking—recently raised its price ceiling for Repsol to €30 per share, when it is currently trading near €25. So, what is the key to the analysts' optimism?

The report recently published by Barclays makes it clear: the conflict in Iran is not just a passing shock, but an accelerator that has strained a market that was already on the rise. In fact, the British institution predicts that prices will normalize to levels much higher than before the war, and has already raised its average forecast for Brent crude to $84 per barrel for all of 2026.

In this context, Repsol is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this crisis for a very simple reason. The conflict is blocking the arrival of finished products (such as diesel or kerosene) to consumers, giving a huge competitive advantage to companies that own refineries and can supply these derivatives. In this regard, Barclays points out that oil companies like Repsol hold all the cards in the short term. In Europe, this select group of winners includes Repsol, the Portuguese company Galp, and the Finnish company Neste. Therefore, as long as the blockade persists, the ability to transform crude oil into fuel will be a veritable gold mine for the company whose CEO is Imaz.

In this sense, Xavi Brun, Director of Equities at Trea and Director of the Master's in Finance at UPF, highlights that the company wins on two fronts: through its own refineries and because derivatives (diesel or gasoline) have also become more expensive, allowing them to obtain a much higher margin per barrel. The difference lies in the fact that its deposits "are located in areas unaffected by the war," allowing it to sell a highly sought-after product at a time when global supply has dwindled. With Brent crude nearing $100, every additional dollar translates into direct net profit that wasn't anticipated in its Strategic Plan. This unexpected cash flow is what allows the company to increase shareholder payouts by 3% annually. Brun, who warns that a hypothetical end to hostilities wouldn't lead to an immediate drop in prices to pre-February 28 levels, states, "A return to normality isn't imminent; the process of reactivating all the wells that have been shut down is slow." This technical and logistical lag ensures that Repsol's "gold mine" will remain active for longer, even after the war in Iran ends.

The two sides of the coin

The upside: energy and defense as safe havens. At the top of the table, Repsol confirms its undisputed leadership. But it's not alone; large energy companies with their own production, such as Iberdrola and Endesa, manage to hold their own thanks to their ability to mitigate the impact of gas price volatility better than heavy industry. Renewable energies are also performing well: stocks like Solaria and Acciona have regained their appeal.

The downside: tourism and industry. On the other side of the coin, the outlook is bleak for companies with high energy dependence. IAG—the parent company of Vueling and Iberia—has been one of the hardest hit, facing a doubling of kerosene prices and routes that have been lengthened to avoid conflict zones. The technology giant that acts as the "brain" of global reserves, Amadeus, is seeing its activity slow down. In the financial sector, banks like Sabadell and BBVA are showing an ambivalent side: although rising interest rates might seem like an ally, the fear that energy inflation could lead to an economic recession is causing investors to proceed with extreme caution.