Oil prices surge above $90 amid fears of reduced supply

BarcelonaThe price of Brent crude, the European benchmark, climbed more than 8% on Friday to between $91 and $93 a barrel, continuing its upward trend. This represents a price increase of over 30% since last Friday, before the start of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. This conflict, which began last Saturday and has spread throughout the Middle East, could force all oil and gas exporters in the Persian Gulf to suspend production within days. This scenario would cause the price of a barrel to soar to $150, according to Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi. Financial TimesIn this interview, he warns that even if the conflict initiated by the US and Israel with the attack on Iran were to end immediately, it would take Qatar "weeks or months" to return to a normal delivery cycle, following the attacks on its liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants. Qatar Energy announced on Wednesday that the halt in LNG and associated product production is due to "force majeure," referring to the Iranian drone attacks on facilities in the industrial cities of Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. So far, the surge in oil prices has impacted gasoline and diesel prices, as well as electricity. International analysts predict that the price of a barrel of oil could rise to between $100 and $120 if access to the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and LNG passes, is restricted for four or five weeks. "If the strait remains blocked, there is no reliable source of quick replacement oil supply, leaving the market exposed to a significant deficit," warns Malcolm Melville, energy fund manager at Schroders.

For now, the price of fossil fuels has skyrocketed, and the price of a barrel of oil has surpassed the levels of June 2024, when Israel's invasion of Gaza and the disruption of trade through the Suez Canal hampered the logistics of raw materials.

Boat insurance in the Golf

In response to this situation, President Donald Trump has ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation, a government agency, to provide political risk hedging and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Persian Gulf. This initiative, which comes in addition to escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, is one of the Trump administration's most aggressive measures to date in an attempt to curb rising energy prices. The conflict has increased risks for shipping through key waterways. In this context, the stock market, which had started the day relatively calmly, ended in losses. The Ibex 35, Spain's main stock market index, fell 0.99% after dropping by around 2%, closing above 17,000 points (17,074.400). Meanwhile, the Eurostoxx, which tracks the largest companies by market capitalization, also experienced a decline of 1.09%, to 5,719.90 points. US equity markets also opened lower. In the US, in addition to oil prices and the consequences of the war, the impact on the labor market is also a factor. The unemployment rate rose by one-tenth of a percentage point in February, to 4.4%, due to the loss of 92,000 jobs, a net loss and worse than expected, as analysts had predicted the creation of 50,000 jobs, according to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).