Consumer loans lead credit growth

BarcelonaThe main Spanish banks have closed the first quarter without any of the tribulations that analysts expected. The six financial entities of the Ibex-35 arrive at the month of April with an accumulated profit close to 11,000 million euros, the best first quarter in the history of the sector. The market reads in the accounts of Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank, Banco Sabadell, Bankinter and Unicaja a strategy of "profitability growth" successful, in the words of the Renta 4 bank expert Nuria Álvarez. The economist, in statements to the newspaper ARA, points out that, in part, the entities have accelerated the offer of slightly riskier products, but also with more profit potential. "In this area, mortgages are not succeeding, but consumer credit is," adds Álvarez. And the Bank of Spain agrees: according to the organism's latest liquidity report, the total balance of consumer financing soared in the first quarter by 12.6%, to 117,351 million.

According to the results submitted by the main entities to the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV), both mortgages and consumer credit have increased in the first three months of the year, although individual financing has done so with much more force than that dedicated to real estate. The most striking case is that of Banco Sabadell, which has increased outstanding mortgage credit by 4%, while it has increased active consumer credit by 14% compared to the end of 2025. It should be noted that the Sabadell portfolio already came from the OPA months and, in fact, new concessions fell slightly until March, down 4% year-on-year. The fall in new mortgages, however, is much more significant, at 26%.

The trend is replicated in the case of CaixaBank, which has seen its consumer portfolio grow by 12.4% in the period, compared to only 6.7% in loans for home purchases. As in the case of Sabadell, new production is more limited: between January and March, mortgages grew by 1.1%, while personal financing grew by close to 3%. The same applies to BBVA, which has had mortgage growth of 1.5%, while its consumer portfolio grew by 4.2%.

More profit with each loan

Consumer financing is provided with much more demanding installments than other loans, with an average of around 7%, according to the credit study by the Bank of Spain. For its part, loans for housing purchases, according to the National Institute of Statistics, were granted between January and March with an average interest rate of 2.88%, in line with a rising Euribor. Furthermore, the market situation is much more favorable, as pointed out by the expert from the Barcelona financial boutique Gesinter, Ferran Carreras. "It is normal for there to be more demand for consumer credit, because employment is growing; while the housing market situation limits access to mortgages," observes the economist. In addition, he considers, inflation is perforating users' wallets, who have to seek loans to cover expenses that they could previously afford with their disposable income.

The first quarter, it should be remembered, was mostly outside the influence of the war in Iran. From April onwards, with the conflict in full swing, insecurity has settled among consumers and, as the president of CaixaBank explained this week, Tomás Muniesa, a slowdown in credit demand has been noted

. In fact, according to data from the Bank of Spain, March was the first month since last July in which the portfolio grew less than the previous period. However, analysts consulted attribute this decrease to an adverse international context that "should be limited".

"They can afford more risk"

The market identifies the banking sector's movement with the historically good health of its credit accounts. According to a report by the consulting firm Morningstar DBRS, the aggregate ratio of non-performing loans of the six Ibex entities has plummeted to 2.1%, a percentage that analysts consider "close to the lows" that Spanish banks can reach. This reduction has allowed the cost of risk to be lowered for several of the entities: only BBVA has had to increase provisions significantly, and it has done so in its major international markets, such as Mexico or Turkey, which are more exposed to international headwinds. Credit certainty provides room for maneuver, but also has limits in terms of the ability to generate profits. "You can only cut risk provisions up to a certain point," indicates Álvarez.

In this regard, analysts deduce that the risk profile allows for targeting less secure, but more profitable, market segments. According to a recent report prepared by the credit agency Equifax and the National Association of Financial Establishments (ASNEF), the risk profile of credit applicants during the first quarter has risen slightly. Álvarez, however, believes that the handling of consumer credit should adapt to the Spanish economic reality, with employment and gross domestic product on the rise: "The probability of default is no longer what it was before."

In this regard, XTB analyst Javier Cabrera believes that it is possible for banks to take advantage of this "flexibility" to launch into these types of products. "Going from a 2.5% delinquency rate to 3% or 3.5% would not be serious, and perhaps they are willing to reach that point," he argues, through more "juicy" credits. The transition, if it occurs, will not happen overnight. "We will not see a very strong rebound in a quarter, but rather gradual increases; some lower-quality credits, but with better interest rates," he predicts.