The Generalitat's budget and game theory
BarcelonaA well-known economist assured me this week that there would be a Catalan government budget for 2026. He was very convinced. In fact, he had no doubt whatsoever, after applying game theory, a branch of mathematics used to model situations involving negotiation, conflict, competition, cooperation, and other similar interactions. This theory aims to determine the best possible strategy for each player and the expected outcome of each situation. Games can be zero-sum (the gains or losses of some players are offset by the gains or losses of others) or non-zero-sum, meaning everyone can win or lose.
Well, applying this to the government of Salvador Illa, the PSC, and Oriol Junqueras' ERC, the result was always the same: both sides have an interest in having a budget, or at the very least, one that avoids the need for early elections in Catalonia. It's not in either side's interest. One reason is that it should halt its projects and shatter the image of stability it so proudly promotes. The other is that it needs to modify its narrative to convince its supporters and others.
This economist said this after learning that the Catalan government He had just withdrawn his draft budgetAn unprecedented event; but he remained convinced that things wouldn't get out of hand. He's not the only one who sees it that way. "Instead of reaching an agreement today and being able to implement the budgets before summer, we'll have to wait another four months due to political interests, or I don't know what kind," another person told me. In reality, we'll have to wait until after the elections in Andalusia. It's the political context, when support from other parties is needed to carry out initiatives, that sets the tone. And meanwhile, in Catalonia, we'll get back to work. with credit supplementsThese measures prevent financial strangulation but don't allow for overly discretionary use of resources. "I'm not approving your projected accounts, but I'm not stopping you from doing things either." Both sides believe it's a non-zero-sum game; that is, each thinks they'll win. We'll see.
