Will it rain for Holy Week? This is what the maps say

BarcelonaAfter the rainiest winter in the last thirty years, with the arrival of spring there is a desire to make outdoor plans. Many people are already looking forward to Easter holidays to go away, go on excursions, enjoy nature or go out with friends and family. Therefore, the question is unavoidable: what will the weather be like this year for Easter? Will it rain or not? On dates like these, the weather acquires a very important weight, because many people make one plan or another depending on the weather forecast.

Evidently, there are still days until Easter, and the forecasts that are emerging can still undergo changes. But it must be taken into account that at the end of March and the beginning of April we are right in the first days of spring, which always brings a lot of variability and a bit of everything. In fact, it is one of the rainiest seasons of the year. Therefore, with so many holidays, the probability of seeing rain on some day is statistically high at this time of year.

Start with a wintery feel and strong wind

According to long-term maps, everything indicates that this Easter we will be fully immersed in a typically spring-like dynamic, with an anticyclone nearby, but not strong enough, which will be positioning itself over the British Isles on the first weekend when many people start their holidays. We will find ourselves right in the middle between the anticyclone and a Mediterranean low-pressure system, with a corridor of north winds that will affect us directly. Therefore, this will allow for more instability, with the passage of a cold front on March 28th and 29th that will open the doors to snow in the Pyrenees, a drop in temperatures, and strong gusts of wind.

But let's take it step by step. For now, Saturday, March 28th, will initially be calm and sunny in the morning. Temperatures will be kept in check and below average, although they will rise slightly. However, the approach of a cold front will increase cloud intervals from north to south throughout the day, and in the afternoon, precipitation will arrive on the northern face of the Pyrenees, where the snow line will drop from the initial 1,400 or 1,200 m to 800 m. Between the afternoon and evening, there will also be some showers between Barcelona and Girona. Tramontana in Empordà and the Pyrenean peaks, and moderate mistral in the Ebro.

But all eyes are on Palm Sunday, as the clockwise rotation of the anticyclone settling over the United Kingdom will send us a new gust of cold air and a strong gale. Once the front passes on Saturday night, we can expect a very windy Sunday in most regions. A strong wind storm will occur. The most affected areas will be the Pyrenees and Pre-Pyrenees – also in the valleys –, the regions of Girona, Camp de Tarragona, Ebro, and Castelló. In these areas, speeds can easily exceed 100 or 120 km/h, with some local hurricane-force gusts of over 140 or 150 km/h. Meteocat has several alerts activated for strong winds this weekend, and Civil Protection has activated the alert for the Ventcat plan.

Little or much, the wind will make itself felt everywhere, although it will blow more weakly in the Barcelona area. Also pay attention to the Balearic Islands, where the wind and rough seas will be very harsh. Maritime situation very altered on the Costa Brava, and very adverse conditions on the high slopes of the Pyrenees, with very strong wind, icy atmosphere, snow and blizzard, a phenomenon that greatly reduces visibility and can cause accidents in the midst of an extreme weather context. Much caution in high mountains, all planned activities in this area will have to be postponed.

It will also continue to snow on the north face of the Pyrenees and will intermittently jump to the south, with a very low snow line. It can snow practically at all elevations. Full winter atmosphere throughout the mountain range, and in the rest, it will be sunny with lower temperatures, values clearly below those usual for this time of year.

Changing weather for the rest of Holy Week

Starting March 30, variability would continue, with a risk of some minor precipitation, especially with remnants of the snowfall still in the Pyrenees. And the north wind would also persist in the extremities, although it would lose intensity and extent. And looking ahead to the key days of Easter – from Good Friday to Easter Monday – the maps indicate that, for the moment, there is a bit of uncertainty. Even so, most models indicate much calmer and more usable weather across the entire territory, with much more mildness, as temperatures would be recovering. Maximums would easily exceed 20 °C in the warmest areas of the country by mid-week.

This forecast can still change, as there are still days left. In the last two years, Easter has had changeable weather with a bit of everything. Both in 2024 and 2025, we had moments of great calm and sun, but also of showers and storms, and snow in the Pyrenees. Therefore, it is most likely that this year we will have a similar situation, as that is what is typical for this time of year. All of this will need to be updated.

Rain, very likely at this time of year

Between April 3rd and 6th, the weather in Catalonia moves in that typical changeable balance of spring. If we look at the behavior of recent years with open data from the Meteorological Service of Catalonia, the probability of rain at some point in the country on these dates is between 35% and 45%. That is, approximately one out of every three days ends with precipitation. This is a relevant figure and makes the risk of rain high, considering that most people will have more than three days of vacation.

The risk increases slightly as the days go by, with a maximum peak of rain risk on April 5th. At this time, the combination of increasingly intense solar radiation and the presence of cold air at high altitudes makes clouds grow eagerly. Therefore, it is usually the classic situation of irregular afternoon thunderstorms, so it can rain in areas of the Pyrenees or the interior while on the coast, for example in Barcelona, the day remains calm. In short, it is a scenario very typical of the Catalan spring, where an umbrella is recommended, but not essential every day.