Spring has officially arrived: will it continue to rain as much as it did this winter?

BarcelonaWe've just left behind an exceptionally rainy winter. It had been thirty years since we'd had such a wet winter, and it even ranks among the four wettest winters on record. This situation has filled reservoirs to capacity – the inland basins are at 92% – and saturated forests and rivers across the country. After this historic period, the astronomical spring is now upon us. The spring equinox will occur this Friday at 3:46 PM. We must remember that this is one of the rainiest seasons of the year in our country. Therefore, the question arises: after the abundant rainfall during the winter, will it continue to rain so much this spring?

To answer this question, we need to look at the maps of the main seasonal weather models. These are long-term forecasts that, obviously, only indicate a trend and should be taken with a grain of salt. But they are an indicator of how spring might behave in our country. It's worth noting that in recent years these forecasts have been quite accurate. We'll see if they hold true this year as well.

A spring like all the old days

According to current weather maps, the entire meteorological spring – encompassing all of March, April, and May – will see typical rainfall, and in some cases, even above average. The two main models – the American and the European – are in agreement. This could include periods of widespread rain, but also the classic afternoon thunderstorms typical of this time of year following sunny mornings. Given that spring is a season with considerable rainfall, these long-term forecasts suggest that the rainy spell we've been experiencing for so many months will continue. The Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) recently published its weather forecast for this spring, and it also aligns with these projections. "The maps indicate that this spring we'll have the usual rainfall for this time of year, but experience tells us that these forecasts often predict more rain than usual," explained Ramón Pascual, AEMET's delegate in Catalonia, in statements to ARA.

But could more rain cause problems for the already saturated rivers? Pascual believes that's not necessarily the case. "If it rains lightly or moderately, the ground can absorb the water; the problem will arise if we have episodes of intense and persistent rain lasting for several days," Pascual explains.

Beyond rainfall, long-term forecasts indicate that this spring will once again be warmer than usual. This situation repeats itself year after year due to global warming. According to the maps, the spring temperature anomaly could reach one degree or more above average.

The fire season, dependent on rainfall

With so much rain already fallen and a rainy spring predicted, it's easy to think that the saturated ground, now recovered from the historic drought, could guarantee a calm summer in terms of forest fires. However, this isn't the case, especially considering the increasingly intense heat in the context of the climate crisis we are experiencing.

According to Pascual, June will be a key month to determine whether the fire season will be good or bad. "With so much rain, we'll arrive at summer with very overgrown vegetation, which can become fuel in case of fire. This is where June comes into play, because if it's dry, summer will begin with very bad conditions, but if it's wet and rainy, at least during the first part of the summer season, there will still be plenty of moisture in the forests, which would slow the spread of flames in case of a fire.

Astronomical summer officially begins on June 21st. Until then, we have 92 days of spring ahead of us with vegetation radiant from so much accumulated water. During these weeks, there will be increasingly more minutes and hours of daylight than night. In addition, the last weekend of March will see the change to summer time, which will lengthen the daylight by an hour in the evenings.

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