Empty schools: in Barcelona there weren't so many I3 places left over in pre-enrollment since the pandemic

BarcelonaWhatsApp group of the AFA of a school in the upper area of Barcelona: "This year the pre-registration is being slow; for now out of 40 places. We wouldn't fill 20". In recent weeks, this message could have been repeated among families from districts like Sarrià-Sant Gervasi, Horta-Guinardó, Sant Martí or, even, Gràcia. There are fewer and fewer children in Barcelona. It is a reality that municipal register data show: only in one out of every five homes in the city lives a minor and the proportion of Barcelona residents under 16 years of age has fallen to historic lows (11.9%). And, as could be expected, this reality also impacts schools, both public and subsidized.

only in one out of every five homes in the city lives a minor and the proportion of Barcelona residents under 16 years of age has fallen to historic lows (11.9%). And, as could be expected, this reality also impacts schools, both public and subsidized.

newly enrolled students – those who arrive at a school mid-term –, as well as adjusting school placements where there are empty seats to avoid promoting school segregation.

students with "matrícula viva" – those who arrive at a center mid-term, as well as adjusting the places in schools where there are empty seats to avoid promoting school segregation.

Between last year and this one, demand for starting school in Barcelona has dropped by 4%, a trend that has been going on for a long time. In the last decade, I3 pre-enrollment applications in the city have fallen by 21%, to the point that next year is expected to be the first with fewer than 10,000 children in I3 in Barcelona. Behind this phenomenon are various circumstances. "It is confirmed that the demographic winter level is a reality, and increasingly so," describes Xavier Bonal, a sociology professor at the UAB specializing in educational policy. In fact, from 2013 to 2023 – the year the children who will start I3 next year were born – the number of births in the city of Barcelona has plummeted by 18%.

However, the decrease in demand for enrollment in a school in the Catalan capital has been even more notable: in the same period, the number of applications has decreased by almost 22%. Beyond the generalized demographic decline, these four percentage points difference between births and applications may also be due to another reality. "A part of this variation is due to people leaving Barcelona. There is an economic expulsion due to housing prices," admits María Segurola, head of projects at Equitat.org. Again, this is a reality that the data show, as in 2024 alone, up to 7,000 children between 0 and 14 years old emigrated from Barcelona.

Nadia is one of the faces that reflects this statistic. "We have two children and soon the third will arrive. We live in a two-bedroom apartment, and it's unviable. When we have considered buying an apartment in Barcelona, we have seen that it is impossible," she laments. She explains that both she and her partner work in the public sector and have "decent salaries," but, despite this, housing prices "have expelled them" from the city. They have opted to buy a house in Terrassa and will move there soon. In this way, their two-year-old son will no longer start I3 at a school in Barcelona, nor will the baby on the way.

The drop in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi

Although in Barcelona the pre-registrations for I3 have fallen by 4% compared to last year, this trend varies drastically depending on the area. In this regard, Sarrià-Sant Gervasi is the district where the drop has been most noticeable, with almost 10% fewer applications than last year. It is followed by Sant Martí (-9.9%), Horta-Guinardó (-7%), and Ciutat Vella (-6.9%).

Here, both Bonal and Segurola explain that the variations in each district can be due to very different reasons. On the one hand, Bonal details that in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi there has "always" been a "brutal oversupply," which may have made the impact of the demographic decline higher. We must also add the fact that it is one of the areas with the most private schools, which have enjoyed an increase in interest in recent years – the pre-registration request is only made in public and state-subsidized centers. Segurola also puts forward the possibility that there has been a reduction in "school tourism": families from other neighborhoods or municipalities who enroll their children in the district.

In addition, the sociologist also points to internal mobility within the city for work reasons or, again, due to the price of housing, which could explain why in other areas the number of I3 pre-registrations has risen in a context of decline. These are areas like the Nou Barris district (+8.4%), which is practically the only one – with the exception of Les Corts, which increases by only 1% – that has seen an increase in requests for enrollment.

Managing the oversupply

Beyond the reasons behind this phenomenon, both experts insist that a strategy is needed to manage the oversupply of places. "The reduction in students will have a significant impact on small private schools and also on the more complex public ones –warns Segurola–. We will no longer need as many places as we needed in 2008, and this is important for the system." In this regard, Bonals recalls that "the policy of reducing ratios has a limit", but admits that the decision to close a center can sometimes be “counterproductive”: “It can leave a neighborhood without a school.” Nevertheless, the sociologist reiterates that given the demographic winter we are experiencing, “some unpopular decisions inevitably have to be made.”

Although both Segurola and Bonals admit that managing this oversupply "is a very complicated political decision", they warn that the impact it may have on public schools must be monitored, as it is the sector where the administration has the most decision-making capacity regarding the closure of groups. "That is why for some time now a new decree on grants has been requested, which should ensure that the planning logic is the same for public and private schools," concludes the sociologist.