MadridThe PSOE's defeat in Andalusia is profound. One only needs to look at the evolution of the electoral results from the 1982 regional elections to the present day to realize the magnitude of the disaster. Because it's not just a loss of votes for the party, but there is a clear rightward shift in this community. An underlying current that has been gaining traction since 2018, the first year since the restoration of democracy that the PP came to power hand in hand with Vox and Ciudadanos. The candidate herself, María Jesús Montero, has been self-critical —honesty is always welcome—, as she is aware that she has fallen far short of her objective and that if the left-wing bloc has revived minimally, it has been due to the result of the sovereignist left of Endavant Andalusia.
However, how does this result affect Pedro Sánchez? The Spanish government does not intend to shift its course towards the 2027 Spanish elections by even a millimeter. The script is written by Moncloa and they consider that the results are not extrapolable to a state-wide election. In fact, on paper they are right: while in 2022 Juan Espadas' Andalusian PSOE obtained 888,325 votes; a year later, Pedro Sánchez obtained 1,467,501 votes in the same community. That is, half a million difference which from Ferraz they attribute to dual voting (are there socialists who may have opted for Moreno Bonilla to stop Vox?). This electoral behavior seems to benefit the PP: in 2022 Moreno Bonilla obtained 1,589,272 votes; in 2023 Feijóo 1,596,044, and now Moreno Bonilla has obtained 1,735,819.
Therefore, with the results in hand, the PSOE can argue what it argues; but it could not do so with the same firmness before its own bases if it were not because, paradoxically, the PP comes out much worse from this electoral event. Because context always matters and expectations even more so. Moreno Bonilla has achieved an unthinkable result for the PP just a decade ago in Andalusia, but he has not reached the absolute majority needed to continue alone without Vox. A fact that, added to this entire cycle of regional elections, leaves Alberto Núñez Feijóo prisoner of Santiago Abascal.
Although the PP wanted to convey the message that Sánchez is finished, the reality that is emerging is a pretext very similar to that of 2023, which culminated precisely with the socialist leader becoming president again. Because the fear of a PP and Vox government in the State is one of the best cards, along with Donald Trump's opposition, that the PSOE has to resist in Moncloa next year. And that is why —beyond the permanent attacks from the Popular Party— the socialists will not abstain in Andalusia to save citizens from the far-right.
