Together they have a problem with Sílvia Orriols

BarcelonaThe survey by the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) reaffirms its position the trend of the latest polls: The PSC remains comfortably in first place, alone, while Junts loses electoral support at the expense of a new competitor, Aliança Catalana. While Carles Puigdemont's party won 35 seats in the last election, while Sílvia Orriols's party won 2, according to the first wave of the 2025 Barometer, the number of seats for the judiciary would be between 27 and 29, while those for Aliança Catalana would rise to 8-10. Both figures are directly related: Puigdemont's largest vote loss is toward Orriols.

Although Junts maintains the loyalty of 74% of those who voted for it, 9% declare that they would now choose the far right. This is ahead of the voting barrier it maintains with Esquerra (6%) and the PSC (3%). This escape route for the regional council members' votes is also suggested by the leaders' assessments. Those who declare themselves supporters of Junts are the ones who most positively value Sílvia Orriols, after the same number of supporters of the Catalan Alliance, although they are closely followed by those who declare themselves supporters of Esquerra, who also value Orriols positively. The encouraging fact for Carles Puigdemont is that he is also capable of capturing the Catalan Alliance's vote: 10% of those who voted for Orriols would now vote for him. Orriols's second preference, by far, is Junts.

The data places Junts in two dilemmas: first, deciding what strategy to use to combat the rise of the far right; second, what policy of pacts they maintain, having to decide, as the European right has done, whether or not to ally with the far right. Regarding the first decision, the judiciary members, in order to curb the growth of the Catalan Alliance, have opted for a discourse on immigration through the delegation of powers in the Generalitat by the State, and also for talking about issues such as security or employment, which until now were the preserve of the PP or the far right itself (the PSC has also chosen to start talking about these issues). For now, the data does not suggest that this has halted Sílvia Orriols' rise. On the contrary: compared to the last Barometer, in which immigration did not appear among the top five concerns of Junts voters, this issue now appears, as it also appears among voters of the PP (in second place) and of Vox and Aliança Catalana (in first place).

At this point, it's worth asking which came first, the chicken or the egg, but it cannot be ruled out that this growing concern corresponds to an "agenda effect," that is, that Junts supporters have also paid more attention to this issue since their leaders began talking about it. In any case, concern about immigration is increasing among the general public. If in the last Barometer it was the sixth problem for Catalans, it has now become the second, behind access to housing and tied with dissatisfaction with politics. It also coincides in that it is being discussed more generally.

Regarding the second issue—whether or not to make a pact with the far right—there are two models: that of the PP with Vox or that of the CDU in Germany, which has refused to ally with AfD. For now, Junts has remained in the cordon sanitaire in the Parliament, despite criticism from other groups over the refusal of the judiciary to remove Orriols from the Ripoll mayor's office. The real dilemma will come in the municipal elections, when they will have to decide whether or not they can count on the votes of the Catalan Alliance to reach the government of the local councils. The secretary general of Junts, Jordi Turull, has said actively and passively that They will not make a pact with the extreme right and the majority of supporters of the Catalan government are in this line: 60% support the cordon sanitaire against extremist movements, but 25% are against it. Among the socialist supporters there are similar figures, unlike what happens with the CUP, Comuns and Esquerra, among which are the greatest supporters of the cordon: 52% of PSC supporters are in favor of the cordon, 17% neither for nor against, 11% do not know, and up to 2% do not know, and until 2009.

The Catalan Alliance makes the pro-independence majority impossible

But it's not just Junts that clashes with the Catalan Alliance; Sílvia Orriols is also the main obstacle to forming a possible new absolute majority for independence. Although neither the four pro-independence parties, combined with the upper echelons, meet the necessary threshold, according to the CEO, neither Junts, Esquerra, nor the CUP have shown any willingness to ally with the Catalan Alliance. Therefore, as the far right grows, especially at the expense of the pro-independence bloc, the possibility of a re-establishment of a sovereignist government will become more remote.