Why is Junts concerned about Sílvia Orriols?

BarcelonaOne of Junts' arguments for not supporting the motion of censure in Ripoll and allowing Sílvia Orriols to finish her term as mayor is that without the mayor's office she would be "freed" to turn to Catalonia for the 2027 elections. An electoral date that will serve to measure the strength of the far-right independence movement, which will force the parties to decide whether or not they can count on their votes to gain power. Now, what is really the electoral boundary between Junts and Aliança? Does Sílvia Orriols also fish from the left?

The latest polls, both from the Centre for Opinion Studies of the Generalitat (CEO) and from the Institute of Political and Social Sciences (ICPS), indicate that the most significant loss of votes that Junts would suffer if there were elections to the Catalan Parliament now would be towards Aliança Catalana (AC). The latest ICPS survey – which collected data from November 7 to December 3, 2024 – indicates that Carles Puigdemont's party maintains one of the highest voting loyalties of the parties in the Parliament, but if it has an electoral border it is with Silvia Orriols' party. More than with Esquerra or the CUP (see graph). Of those who declare they will vote for Juntos in the elections of May 12, 6.7% now say they would vote for AC, while 3.7% would opt for the CUP and 1.5% for Esquerra. When asked who they would prefer as president of the Generalitat, those from Junts respond with 74.1% Puigdemont; 4.4% Silvia Orriols; 3.7% Oriol Junqueras, and 2.2% Salvador Illa. In any case, there is also a flight of votes from Aliança to Junts, despite maintaining a voter loyalty of 91%: 9% declare that they would vote for Puigdemont, although in absolute numbers the number of votes that this percentage represents is much lower than those who would do the opposite.

This trend had already been indicated by the CEO's third opinion barometer, which collected data between October 11 and November 14, 2024. If we look at the transfer of votes, it is also confirmed that the biggest barrier that Junts has right now is with the Alliance, which basically grows from Puigdemont's party and abstention. Of those who voted for the junteros in the previous Catalan elections, 75.4% would vote for them again, while 4.9% would now vote for Sílvia Orriols. AC's influence is especially located in central Catalonia and in the Girona regions, where the party is already multiplying the number of local sections.

The conclusions are similar if we look at the data on the assessment of leadership. Experts consulted after working with the CEO's polls point out that 6.4% of Catalans rate her positively (from 7 to 10). A figure higher than the direct voting intention of Aliança (2.1%) and even than the results of last year's Catalan elections (3.8%). "This shows that there is room for growth," the sources point out. And of these, how many are from Junts? "One in six voters (16.7%) who voted for Junts rates Sílvia Orriols between 7 and 10, three times the official vote loss," they point out. And what do these voters think? The group that rates Silvia Orriols most positively shows negative attitudes towards immigration, much higher than the general average. 75% of them believe that there is too much immigration and 80% believe that the government has lost control of who enters the country.

Attitudes towards immigration

The latest ICPS survey also shows an increase in the negative perception of immigration among Junts voters. According to this survey, the number of people who agree with the statement "We must limit the entry of immigrants into the country" has increased by twenty points. If in 2023 it was 48.3%, a figure similar to that of Esquerra and PSC voters, now 67.4% of Junts voters say they agree with this statement, only behind Aliança (100%) and Vox (85.7%). PP voters agree with this statement at 64.9%.

What is the reason for this increase? When consulted by ARA, both Joan Rodríguez Teruel, director of the CEO, and Oriol Bartomeus, director of the ICPS, attribute it to a question of agenda: there is more talk now and Junts in particular has also taken immigration as a relevant issue. "Concern is activated because the reference party talks about it." Bartomeus agrees: "It is a very clear agenda effect." In fact, in the last CEO, immigration did not yet appear among the first problems among Junts voters: housing, dissatisfaction with politics, health and the functioning of the economy were.

From the left to the extreme right?

As for the rest of the voters that Aliança absorbs, for now those of Esquerra or the CUP are not significant, and neither are those of the PSC. Bartomeus assures that for now in Catalonia there is not the phenomenon that has already occurred in Europe of traditional left-wing strongholds turning in favour of Aliança Catalana. As for Vox, in the elections held so far there has not been detected electoral competition between the two far-right parties, but there could be in the future if the national variable continues to lose strength. "If Vox defended the independence of Catalonia it is likely that it would converge with its postulates," Orriols acknowledged in an interview on TV3 this Friday. The Aliança electorate is, in fact, the least pro-independence of the three pro-sovereignty parties: 60% declare themselves pro-independence.