The Catalan Alliance soars, Junts falls, and the PSC remains first: CEO estimates

BarcelonaThe PSC maintains its lead and would win the elections again (41-43 seats), according to the latest Barometer from the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), which comes six months after Salvador Illa took office. However, the party that would see the sharpest gain is Aliança Catalana: Sílvia Orriols's far-right party would multiply its results by five, going from 2 seats to between 8 and 10. This increase would be detrimental to Junts, which would suffer a decline from 25 seats. ERC, after the setback of the 12-M elections and the internal crisis within the party, would recover slightly and reach between 21 and 23 seats. The Republicans now have 20 seats in the Parliament.

How can this increase in the Catalan Alliance be explained? "There is a clear channel for voter transfer from Junts to Aliança," notes CEO Juan Rodríguez Teruel. Junts is the party with the lowest level of voter loyalty, at 74%, while the rest are above 80%. The main loss of votes suffered by Carles Puigdemont's party is to Sílvia Orriols's, specifically at 9%. Conversely, the far-right party also has 10% of voters who would now opt for Junts. The survey was conducted between February 14 and March 14 (with a sample of 2,000 interviews), when the vote of no confidence in Ripoll failed after Junts withdrew. In this regard, there is a fact worth taking into account: 52% of those surveyed are in favor of cordons sanitaires. Carlos Puigdemont, in a message to X, has discredited the data from this latest CEO Barometer, which he sees as "shortcomings" and considers to be a tool "for political propaganda."

During this period, Junts also signed its pact with the PSOE to delegate immigration powers, and ERC agreed to cancel part of the debt of the regional liquidity fund (FLA), in addition to finalizing the new commuter rail operator. In this sense, according to the survey, Republican voters would reward the role of Oriol Junqueras's party in the negotiations with the State. The picture of the rest of the chamber would see few changes. The PP and Vox would maintain their representation: the PP are positioned between 14 and 16 seats (they currently have 15) and the far-right party between 10 and 12 (they have 11). The Comuns, which currently has 6 deputies, would maintain their representation or could even increase by one seat, and the CUP could suffer a slight decline and move between 3 and 4 seats (it currently has 4).

As for the Congress of Deputies, the PSC also maintains its lead (19-21 seats), but there could be a change in second place: ERC (7-8) would overtake Sumar, which would drop to sixth place with a gap of between 2-3 seats (it currently has a gap of 2-3 seats). Together they would become the third force (6-8) and Podemos and the CUP could enter the Lower House.

The assessment of political leaders

Regarding the preference for political leaders, Salvador Illa remains the preferred candidate to lead the Catalan government: he has the support of 22% of those surveyed, ahead of the leader of Junts, Carles Puigdemont (9%), and the leader of ERC, Oriol Junqueras (6%). However, although he has improved compared to the latest CEO Barometer, the president of the Republicans is the one who receives the least support among his voters to become president of the Catalan government (34%).

The PSC leader is also the leader with the highest approval rating, at 61%. Behind him are Oriol Junqueras (54%) and Jéssica Albiach (50%). Carles Puigdemont receives 36% of the votes, ahead of Sílvia Orriols (35%). However, the leader of the Commons has a low level of awareness (47%) compared to Puigdemont, Junqueras, and Isla, who all score above 90%. Regarding the average score (see graph) received by those surveyed, all fail, but Salvador Illa leads the ranking (4.9), followed by Oriol Junqueras (4.6), Jèssica Albiach (4.4), Laia Estrada (4.2), Carles Puigdemont (3.4), and Sílvia Illa (1.9).

Salvador Illa not only enjoys broad support among his voters (88%), but he also enjoys the approval of 73% of ERC voters and 67% of his two investiture partners in the Commons. Junqueras enjoys the approval of 88% of ERC voters, a similar percentage to Puigdemont's (89%), but it is Orriols who receives the highest approval among his electorate (93%). In contrast, both Jéssica Albiach (Comuns) and Laia Estrada (CUP) receive support below 80% among their voters.

Salvador Illa's government also receives approval, with 62% support. Aside from the Socialists, the only voters who give it a 5 are the Republicans and the Commons. Housing remains the main issue, ahead of immigration (which rises to second place, tied with dissatisfaction with politics), although in the latter case, Rodríguez Teruel points out that it has grown as an issue due to the "political reflex" of some parties. For the first time, the CEO also asked about US policy following Donald Trump's arrival at the White House: 77% are against it.

Support for independence is at an all-time low

Support for independence remains below the majority, reaching its lowest level since the beginning of the Process: 38%, while those opposed to a separate state stand at 54%. If we add the options of an autonomous and federal state to the question about independence, support for Catalonia leaving Spain is even lower, at 29%. Support for Catalonia remaining an autonomous community is the majority, at 36%. Rodríguez Teruel explains these percentages by the fact that the national question has been "more relegated" among the problems facing Catalans. Furthermore, 53% of those surveyed approve of open dialogue with the state to address the political conflict.