The PSOE, very close to taking eleven seats from the right (and to losing a few, as well)

BarcelonaAs happened three years ago, the right-wing bloc starts with an advantage in the general election race. There is approximately one month left until the elections and the average for the PP and Vox stands at over 190 seats, comfortably above the 176 that mark an absolute majority: the polls predict a slight fall for the Popular Party, theoretically compensated by the rise of the far right. But as also happened in 2023, as the election day approaches, the distance pointed out by the demographic studies is narrowing. Election campaigns suit Pedro Sánchez better than Alberto Núñez Feijóo. Do the left—and their pro-sovereignty partners—have room to turn the results around?

The map that accompanies this article shows us graphically who would currently take the last seat in each province. That is to say, the main seat at stake, because it is the one that could tip the election to one side or the other. It is precisely this last seat that motivates electoral alliances to maximize results, especially in small constituencies. This Monday the deadline for submitting candidacies ends and the PSOE still trusts that the parties to its left will agree not to run in many —to group left-wing voters—, just as the PP would like Vox to do.

Where do we get the data from? It is a projection of results based on the trend marked by the polls published by the main polling companies. UB political science professor and ARA collaborator Jordi Muñoz has developed a method to simulate the elections hundreds of times (more than 1,000), which will be updated daily from now on. Therefore, we will be able to see if these last seats change blocks practically in real time. For the moment, the PP would have 21 and Vox, 6. But, of course, the PSOE also has a good handful, 20, and neither the Broad Front nor Podemos seem prepared to compete for these last seats. The rest would be divided among Junts, Bildu, Forward Andalusia, and UPN.

Polls point to dynamics and a snapshot of the current moment. If it is already complicated for them to get the overall results 100% right, it is even more so when we put them under the microscope. Therefore, it is necessary to take all possible precautions. But this exercise allows us to observe that today the polls detect that the last seat is at stake in at least 32 provinces, in which the distance between the party that would currently keep it and its closest pursuer is below 5%. The left-wing bloc is very close to taking eleven of those that the PP and Vox would currently have, a fact that would imply a significant bite of seats. It could also lose eleven more, while in the rest the main competition takes place between parties of the same bloc. The continuity of Sánchez at La Moncloa depends in large part on which side these last seats lean towards.

The details of the week

Every time an election approaches, campaign teams —or the politicians themselves— rack their brains to the limit trying to find a slogan or a witty phrase that puts them at an advantage with the citizenry. Some succeed and others make fools of themselves. This week, the Madrid president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, tried it by recalling the former PSOE spokesperson, Montse Mínguez. "What is my fault that they call an election for housing and then they don't give a damn about housing?"

The most famous detective agency in Catalonia—at least for its political ties—, Método 3, is turning forty. To celebrate, they have prepared a spy kit that they have sent to different people, including some journalists. One of the gadgets they have included is a pen that records conversations and transcribes them automatically.